New Probability Ranges
Beginning with the 2020:Q2 survey, changes were made to the definition of the probability bins for real GDP growth and the unemployment rate over the next four years. For more information, see "spf-documentation.pdf" on pp. 45 and 47.
The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.
The Survey of Professional Forecasters' web page offers the actual releases, documentation, mean and median forecasts of all the respondents as well as the individual responses from each economist. The individual responses are kept confidential by using identification numbers.
View previous releases of the Survey of Professional Forecasters going back to Third Quarter 1990. All surveys are in PDF format.