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Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Measuring Employer-to-Employer Reallocation

WP 21-22 – We revisit the measurement of Employer-to-Employer (EE) transitions in the monthly Current Population Survey.

Featured Work

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Macroeconomic Forecasting and Variable Ordering in Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models

WP 21-21 – We document five novel empirical findings on the well-known potential ordering drawback associated with the time-varying parameter vector autoregression with stochastic volatility developed by Cogley and Sargent (2005) and Primiceri (2005), CSP-SV.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models: Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs

WP 21-18 – We present a general framework for Bayesian estimation and causality assessment in epidemiological models.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Factor Models with Local Factors—Determining the Number of Relevant Factors

WP 21-15 – We extend the theory on factor models by incorporating “local” factors into the model. Local factors affect only an unknown subset of the observed variables.

Featured Data

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Livingston Survey

The oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia

Updated: 18 Jun ’21

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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States

Updated: 14 May ’21

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Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Updated: 17 Jun ’21

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Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists

The real-time data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of time series of major macroeconomic variables. The data set may be used by macroeconomic researchers to verify empirical results, to analyze policy, or to forecast. New vintages are added monthly.

Updated: 28 May ’21

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GDPplus

Measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points

Updated: 27 May ’21

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Aruoba Term Structure of Inflation Expectations

A continuous curve of inflation expectations three to 120 months ahead, analogous to a yield curve

Updated: 27 May ’21