Working Paper
At-Risk Transformation for U.S. Recession Prediction
WP 25-34 – We flip a large set of economic indicators into simple on/off “at-risk” signals and combine them to forecast U.S. recessions. This method is fast and robust, and it often beats complex machine-learning models.
Featured Work
Working Paper
School Closures, Parental Labor Supply, and Time Use
WP 25-33 – This paper finds that the effect of 2020–21 school closures on parents’ hours worked was surprisingly small. How parents sustained their working time — using a mix of telework and informal child care — is a research priority.
Working Paper
(Visualizing) Plausible Treatment Effect Paths
WP 25-27 – Many economic policies have dynamic treatment effects. To help researchers understand what dynamics are plausible, we introduce two new tools to visualize uncertainty about dynamic effects.
Working Paper
Assessing Maximum Employment
WP 25-26 – The authors study how various labor market indicators can be used to assess the position of the labor market relative to maximum employment. The analysis is conducted as part of the Fed’s 2025 review of its monetary policy framework.
Featured Data
Livingston Survey
The oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia
Updated: 24 Jun ’25
Survey of Professional Forecasters
The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States
Updated: 15 Aug ’25
Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index
An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency
Updated: 06 Nov ’25
Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists
The real-time data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of time series of major macroeconomic variables. The data set may be used by macroeconomic researchers to verify empirical results, to analyze policy, or to forecast. All data are updated at the end of each month.
Updated: 31 Oct ’25
GDPplus
Measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points
Updated: 25 Sep ’25
Aruoba Term Structure of Inflation Expectations
A continuous curve of inflation expectations three to 120 months ahead, analogous to a yield curve
Updated: 31 Oct ’25