Article
Rectifying Shortcomings in Measured Employer-to-Employer Flows in the U.S. Labor Market
14 Sep ’21
Research in Focus – Shigeru Fujita of the Philadelphia Fed and his coauthors improve upon a measure of direct employer-to-employer transitions by accounting for missing survey data responses.
Featured Work
Working Paper
Geometric Methods for Finite Rational Inattention
WP 21-30 – We present a geometric approach to the finite Rational Inattention (RI) model, recasting it as a convex optimization problem with reduced dimensionality that is well-suited to numerical methods.
Working Paper
Rational Inattention via Ignorance Equivalence
WP 21-29 – We introduce the concept of the ignorance equivalent to effectively summarize the payoff possibilities in a finite Rational Inattention problem.
Article
Why Credit Cards Played a Surprisingly Big Role in the Great Recession
Economic Insights — By 2008, consumers and lenders had fallen in love with zero-APR credit card offers, but once Lehman Brothers collapsed, all that changed.
Featured Data
Livingston Survey
The oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia
Updated: 18 Jun ’21
Survey of Professional Forecasters
The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States
Updated: 13 Aug ’21
Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index
An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency
Updated: 16 Sep ’21
Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists
The real-time data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of time series of major macroeconomic variables. The data set may be used by macroeconomic researchers to verify empirical results, to analyze policy, or to forecast. New vintages are added monthly.
Updated: 27 Aug ’21
GDPplus
Measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points
Updated: 26 Aug ’21
Aruoba Term Structure of Inflation Expectations
A continuous curve of inflation expectations three to 120 months ahead, analogous to a yield curve
Updated: 31 Aug ’21