A Japanese couple is preparing a meal in a kitchen.

Macroeconomics

Article

Can Workforce Demographics Affect the Broader Economy? Evidence of a Link in Japan

Research in Focus – In recent decades, the composition of the Japanese workforce has skewed older. The authors measure how this aging labor pool has influenced the path of the broader economy.

Featured Work

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Identification Through Sparsity in Factor Models: The ℓ1-Rotation Criterion

WP 20-25/R – We show that sparsity in the loading matrix can solve the rotational indeterminacy in factor models, allowing a researcher to recover how individual factors relate to the observed variables.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

The Heterogeneous Impact of Referrals on Labor Market Outcomes

WP 21-34 – We document a new set of facts regarding the impact of referrals on labor market outcomes.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Refining Set-Identification in VARs Through Independence

WP 21-31 – Identification in VARs has traditionally mainly relied on second moments. Some researchers have considered using higher moments as well, but there are concerns about the strength of the identification obtained in this way.

Featured Data

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Livingston Survey

The oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia

Updated: 18 Jun ’21

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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States

Updated: 15 Nov ’21

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Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Updated: 03 Dec ’21

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Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists

The real-time data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of time series of major macroeconomic variables. The data set may be used by macroeconomic researchers to verify empirical results, to analyze policy, or to forecast. New vintages are added monthly.

Updated: 24 Nov ’21

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GDPplus

Measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points

Updated: 24 Nov ’21

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Aruoba Term Structure of Inflation Expectations

A continuous curve of inflation expectations three to 120 months ahead, analogous to a yield curve

Updated: 30 Nov ’21