Rows of shiny, gold bars.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

A Model of the Gold Standard

WP 22-33 – We model an international gold standard and find that it exposes domestic economies to external shocks, prompting the least-productive countries to opt out of the standard. In other words, the gold standard can be sustainable at the core but not at the periphery.

Featured Work

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Price Setting with Customer Capital: Sales, Teasers, and Rigidity

WP 22-31 – A theory where buyers search for products that fit their needs gives rise to temporary sales in pricing when firms set a common price across their customers, and teaser pricing when firms can differentiate between new and repeat customers.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Uniform Priors for Impulse Responses

WP 22-30 – There has been a call to abandon the conventional method for Bayesian inference in set-identified structural vector autoregressions on the grounds that it could be overly informative for posterior inference. This paper challenges this call.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Polarized Contributions but Convergent Agendas

WP 22-29 – The political process in the United States appears to be highly polarized: Data show that the political positions of legislators have diverged substantially, while the largest campaign contributions come from the most extreme donor groups and are directed to the most extreme candidates.

Featured Data

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Livingston Survey

The oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia

Updated: 17 Jun ’22

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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States

Updated: 12 Aug ’22

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Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Updated: 06 Oct ’22

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Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists

The real-time data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of time series of major macroeconomic variables. The data set may be used by macroeconomic researchers to verify empirical results, to analyze policy, or to forecast. New vintages are added monthly.

Updated: 30 Sep ’22

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GDPplus

Measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points

Updated: 29 Sep ’22

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Aruoba Term Structure of Inflation Expectations

A continuous curve of inflation expectations three to 120 months ahead, analogous to a yield curve

Updated: 30 Sep ’22