Macroeconomics

Article

Breaking Down the Latest Fight Against Inflation

Economic Insights — How would the economy have evolved had the Fed adopted a different monetary policy stance during the latest tightening cycle? To find out, four economists adopt a novel empirical perspective.

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Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Identification Through Sparsity in Factor Models: The ℓ1-Rotation Criterion

WP 20-25/R – Using a novel rotation criterion, we show that sparsity in the loading matrix is sufficient to recover individual loading vectors in a factor model. This enables economic interpretation of the factors.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

A Gibbs Sampler for Efficient Bayesian Inference in Sign-Identified SVARs

WP 25-19 – We develop a new algorithm to analyze economic data using SVAR models identified with sign restrictions. We demonstrate its usefulness on a small SVAR of the world oil market and a large SVAR of the U.S. economy.

Macroeconomics

Article

Bad Times, Bad Health

Economic Insights — Why do more people report being in poor health during a recession? The link between the two might be stress.

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Livingston Survey

The oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia

Updated: 24 Jun ’25

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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States

Updated: 16 May ’25

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Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Updated: 27 Jun ’25

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Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists

The real-time data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of time series of major macroeconomic variables. The data set may be used by macroeconomic researchers to verify empirical results, to analyze policy, or to forecast. All data are updated at the end of each month.

Updated: 27 Jun ’25

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GDPplus

Measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points

Updated: 26 Jun ’25

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Aruoba Term Structure of Inflation Expectations

A continuous curve of inflation expectations three to 120 months ahead, analogous to a yield curve

Updated: 27 Jun ’25