Research in Focus – Shigeru Fujita of the Philadelphia Fed and his coauthors improve upon a measure of direct employer-to-employer transitions by accounting for missing survey data responses.
WP 21-30 – We present a geometric approach to the finite Rational Inattention (RI) model, recasting it as a convex optimization problem with reduced dimensionality that is well-suited to numerical methods.
WP 21-29 – We introduce the concept of the ignorance equivalent to effectively summarize the payoff possibilities in a finite Rational Inattention problem.
Economic Insights — By 2008, consumers and lenders had fallen in love with zero-APR credit card offers, but once Lehman Brothers collapsed, all that changed.
The oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia
Updated: 18 Jun ’21
The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States
Updated: 13 Aug ’21
An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency
Updated: 16 Sep ’21
The real-time data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of time series of major macroeconomic variables. The data set may be used by macroeconomic researchers to verify empirical results, to analyze policy, or to forecast. New vintages are added monthly.
Updated: 27 Aug ’21
Measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points
Updated: 26 Aug ’21
A continuous curve of inflation expectations three to 120 months ahead, analogous to a yield curve
Updated: 31 Aug ’21