Working Paper
A Gibbs Sampler for Efficient Bayesian Inference in Sign-Identified SVARs
WP 25-19 – We develop a new algorithm to analyze economic data using SVAR models identified with sign restrictions. We demonstrate its usefulness on a small SVAR of the world oil market and a large SVAR of the U.S. economy.
Featured Work
Article
Bad Times, Bad Health
Economic Insights — Why do more people report being in poor health during a recession? The link between the two might be stress.
Brief
Delayed Sampling of Recent Immigrants in the Current Population Survey
Research Brief — We show that the Current Population Survey (CPS) undercounts immigrants for up to five years after arrival. We provide methods to interpolate year of immigration and correct for undercounting by upweighting recent immigrants observed in the CPS.
Working Paper
Climate Shocks in the Anthropocene Era: Should Net Domestic Product Reflect Climate Disasters?
WP 25-01 – How to include climate costs in measures of growth? Property damages from climate change have cost us well over $1 trillion. We show how climate costs, by raising depreciation, result in slower growth of U.S. net domestic product.
Featured Data
Livingston Survey
The oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia
Updated: 20 Dec ’24
Survey of Professional Forecasters
The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States
Updated: 16 May ’25
Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index
An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency
Updated: 06 Jun ’25
Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists
The real-time data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of time series of major macroeconomic variables. The data set may be used by macroeconomic researchers to verify empirical results, to analyze policy, or to forecast. All data are updated at the end of each month.
Updated: 30 May ’25
GDPplus
Measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points
Updated: 29 May ’25
Aruoba Term Structure of Inflation Expectations
A continuous curve of inflation expectations three to 120 months ahead, analogous to a yield curve
Updated: 30 May ’25