Macroeconomics

Working Paper

The Heterogeneous Impact of Referrals on Labor Market Outcomes

WP 21-34/R – Referrals are used all the time to help workers and firms form matches. But what, exactly, do they do? This working paper explores the role that they play in the hiring process and the implications for employment, wages, and inequality.

Featured Work

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

xtevent: Estimation and Visualization in the Linear Panel Event-Study Design

WP 24-15 – Event studies are popular tools for learning about policy effects. We introduce the Stata package xtevent, which enables the construction of event-study plots and implements various estimators for the underlying policy effects.

Macroeconomics

Article

The Evolving Structure of Housing Markets: Institutional Investors and Their Influential Role During the Great Recession

Research in Focus — A model of U.S. housing markets by Dick Oosthuizen illustrates how corporate investors helped mitigate price declines during a prolonged recession.

Macroeconomics

Article

Trends and Determinants of U.S. Markups

Research in Focus — Enghin Atalay of the Philadelphia Fed and his coauthors examined markups over time and considered the role of firm costs, market concentration, and consumer preferences.

Featured Data

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Livingston Survey

The oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia

Updated: 14 Jun ’24

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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States

Updated: 09 Aug ’24

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Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Updated: 12 Sep ’24

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Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists

The real-time data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of time series of major macroeconomic variables. The data set may be used by macroeconomic researchers to verify empirical results, to analyze policy, or to forecast. All data are updated at the end of each month.

Updated: 30 Aug ’24

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GDPplus

Measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points

Updated: 29 Aug ’24

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Aruoba Term Structure of Inflation Expectations

A continuous curve of inflation expectations three to 120 months ahead, analogous to a yield curve

Updated: 23 Aug ’24