Macroeconomics

Article

The Propagation of Vacancy Chains and Their Impact on Labor Market Dynamics

Research in Focus — Ryan Michaels and his coauthors study firms’ replacement hiring and the emergence of vacancy chains, which have key implications for U.S. labor market volatility and productivity.

Featured Work

Macroeconomics

Article

The Labor Market Recovery Following COVID

Economic Insights — By the time the Fed raised interest rates in March 2022, employment, which had been hit hard by COVID, had bounced back for most groups, but there were two notable exceptions.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Is GDP Becoming Obsolete? The “Beyond GDP” Debate

WP 22-37 – Real GDP falls short in quantifying the economic well-being of a nation. We discuss how far we can expand it to include new well-being impacts like the rise of the Internet and climate change. Not all of well-being is quantifiable.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

A Model of the Gold Standard

WP 22-33 – We model an international gold standard and find that it exposes domestic economies to external shocks, prompting the least-productive countries to opt out of the standard. In other words, the gold standard can be sustainable at the core but not at the periphery.

Featured Data

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Livingston Survey

The oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia

Updated: 16 Dec ’22

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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States

Updated: 14 Nov ’22

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Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Updated: 27 Jan ’23

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Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists

The real-time data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of time series of major macroeconomic variables. The data set may be used by macroeconomic researchers to verify empirical results, to analyze policy, or to forecast. New vintages are added monthly.

Updated: 27 Jan ’23

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GDPplus

Measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points

Updated: 26 Jan ’23

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Aruoba Term Structure of Inflation Expectations

A continuous curve of inflation expectations three to 120 months ahead, analogous to a yield curve

Updated: 27 Jan ’23