Macroeconomics

Working Paper

A Twenty-First Century of Solitude? Time Alone and Together in the United States

WP 22-11 – Americans increasingly spend their free time alone. This paper shows that time alone has increased most for low-income, non-White, and less-educated individuals. These trends imply that well-being inequality is increasing faster than previously thought.

Featured Work

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Macroeconomic Forecasting and Variable Ordering in Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models

WP 21-21/R – We document five novel empirical findings on the potential ordering drawback associated with the time-varying parameter vector autoregression with stochastic volatility. Then we explore alternative modeling strategies.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

The Firm Size-Leverage Relationship and Its Implications for Entry and Business Concentration

WP 22-07 – Larger firms (by sales or employment) have higher leverage. This pattern is explained using a model in which firms produce multiple varieties, acquire new varieties from their inventors, and borrow against the future cash flow of the firm with the option to default.

Macroeconomics

Article

How Do Job Referrals Impact the U.S. Labor Market?

Research in Focus — Benjamin Lester and his coauthors study the effect of different types of job referrals across occupations on levels of employment, wages, job turnover, and inequality.

Featured Data

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Livingston Survey

The oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia

Updated: 17 Dec ’21

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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States

Updated: 13 May ’22

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Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Updated: 27 May ’22

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Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists

The real-time data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of time series of major macroeconomic variables. The data set may be used by macroeconomic researchers to verify empirical results, to analyze policy, or to forecast. New vintages are added monthly.

Updated: 27 May ’22

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GDPplus

Measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points

Updated: 26 May ’22

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Aruoba Term Structure of Inflation Expectations

A continuous curve of inflation expectations three to 120 months ahead, analogous to a yield curve

Updated: 29 Apr ’22