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Rectifying Shortcomings in Measured Employer-to-Employer Flows in the U.S. Labor Market

Research in Focus – Shigeru Fujita of the Philadelphia Fed and his coauthors improve upon a measure of direct employer-to-employer transitions by accounting for missing survey data responses.

Featured Work


Working Paper

Geometric Methods for Finite Rational Inattention

WP 21-30 – We present a geometric approach to the finite Rational Inattention (RI) model, recasting it as a convex optimization problem with reduced dimensionality that is well-suited to numerical methods.


Working Paper

Rational Inattention via Ignorance Equivalence

WP 21-29 – We introduce the concept of the ignorance equivalent to effectively summarize the payoff possibilities in a finite Rational Inattention problem.



Why Credit Cards Played a Surprisingly Big Role in the Great Recession

Economic Insights — By 2008, consumers and lenders had fallen in love with zero-APR credit card offers, but once Lehman Brothers collapsed, all that changed.

Featured Data

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Livingston Survey

The oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia

Updated: 18 Jun ’21

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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States

Updated: 13 Aug ’21

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Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Updated: 16 Sep ’21

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Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists

The real-time data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of time series of major macroeconomic variables. The data set may be used by macroeconomic researchers to verify empirical results, to analyze policy, or to forecast. New vintages are added monthly.

Updated: 27 Aug ’21

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Measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points

Updated: 26 Aug ’21

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Aruoba Term Structure of Inflation Expectations

A continuous curve of inflation expectations three to 120 months ahead, analogous to a yield curve

Updated: 31 Aug ’21