WP 22-33 – We model an international gold standard and find that it exposes domestic economies to external shocks, prompting the least-productive countries to opt out of the standard. In other words, the gold standard can be sustainable at the core but not at the periphery.
WP 22-31 – A theory where buyers search for products that fit their needs gives rise to temporary sales in pricing when firms set a common price across their customers, and teaser pricing when firms can differentiate between new and repeat customers.
WP 22-30 – There has been a call to abandon the conventional method for Bayesian inference in set-identified structural vector autoregressions on the grounds that it could be overly informative for posterior inference. This paper challenges this call.
WP 22-29 – The political process in the United States appears to be highly polarized: Data show that the political positions of legislators have diverged substantially, while the largest campaign contributions come from the most extreme donor groups and are directed to the most extreme candidates.
The oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia
Updated: 17 Jun ’22
The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States
Updated: 12 Aug ’22
An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency
Updated: 06 Oct ’22
The real-time data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of time series of major macroeconomic variables. The data set may be used by macroeconomic researchers to verify empirical results, to analyze policy, or to forecast. New vintages are added monthly.
Updated: 30 Sep ’22
Measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points
Updated: 29 Sep ’22
A continuous curve of inflation expectations three to 120 months ahead, analogous to a yield curve
Updated: 30 Sep ’22