How Accurate Are Long-Run Employment Projections?

Economic Insights — The occupational mix has been changing for decades. Planners and decision-makers need to know how it will continue to change, and why.

Featured Work

Regional Spotlight: How Third District Firms Were Impacted by COVID-19

Economic Insights — Starting early in the pandemic, Elif Sen began surveying Third District businesses every week. The first few weeks of responses tell us a lot about how they're faring during these unprecedented times.



Q&A with Enghin Atalay

Economic Insights — The author of this issue's article about long-run unemployment projections tells us how he became interested in economics.


Working Paper

Firm Technology Upgrading Through Emerging Work

WP20-44 - We propose a new measure of firms’ technology adoption, based on the types of employees they seek.

Featured Data

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Livingston Survey

The oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia

Updated: December 18, 2020

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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States

Updated: 16 Nov ’20

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Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Updated: 15 Jan ’21

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Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists

The real-time data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of time series of major macroeconomic variables. The data set may be used by macroeconomic researchers to verify empirical results, to analyze policy, or to forecast. New vintages are added monthly.

Updated: 29 Dec ’20

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Measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points

Updated: 22 Dec ’20

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Aruoba Term Structure of Inflation Expectations

A continuous curve of inflation expectations three to 120 months ahead, analogous to a yield curve

Updated: 30 Dec ’20