Working Paper
Racial Heterogeneity in Consumption Responses to the Economic Impact Payment
WP 26-06 – We investigate how households of different racial groups changed their consumption expenditures differently upon receiving a pandemic check and what is behind the racial differences.
Featured Work
Working Paper
Large SVARs
WP 26-04 – We develop a new algorithm to analyze economic data using SVAR models identified with sign restrictions. We demonstrate its usefulness on a small SVAR of the world oil market and a large SVAR of the U.S. economy.
Price and Inflation Expectations Survey (PIES)
Quarterly survey of price and inflation expectations among manufacturing and nonmanufacturing firms in the Third District
Working Paper
At-Risk Transformation for U.S. Recession Prediction
WP 25-34 – We flip a large set of economic indicators into simple on/off “at-risk” signals and combine them to forecast U.S. recessions. This method is fast and robust, and it often beats complex machine-learning models.
Featured Data
Livingston Survey
The oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia
Updated: 19 Dec ’25
Survey of Professional Forecasters
The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States
Updated: 17 Nov ’25
Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index
An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency
Updated: 29 Jan ’26
Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists
The real-time data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of time series of major macroeconomic variables. The data set may be used by macroeconomic researchers to verify empirical results, to analyze policy, or to forecast. All data are updated at the end of each month.
Updated: 30 Jan ’26
GDPplus
Measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points
Updated: 22 Jan ’26
Aruoba Term Structure of Inflation Expectations
A continuous curve of inflation expectations three to 120 months ahead, analogous to a yield curve
Updated: 30 Jan ’26