Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Inference Based on Time-Varying SVARs Identified with Sign Restrictions

WP 24-05 – We propose a new methodology for causal inference in time-varying structural vector autoregressions. We illustrate our approach for inference by analyzing the role played by monetary policy during the latest inflation surge.

Featured Work

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

The Changing Polarization of Party Ideologies: The Role of Sorting

WP 24-04 – History shows that when political parties become more polarized along one dimension of policy, they become less polarized along some other dimension. We explain how this can happen via changes in the ideological make up parties.

Macroeconomics

Article

Time Use Before, During, and After the Pandemic

Economic Insights — Before the pandemic, Americans increasingly worked from home, spent time alone, and shared child-care duties. The data show how COVID accelerated and reshaped these three trends.

Forecast Accuracy and Forecaster Disagreement in the Survey of Professional Forecasters

Research Brief — This research brief continues the Philadelphia Fed’s longstanding tradition of examining the forecast accuracy of the SPF by testing the survey’s accuracy against a benchmark model, conditioning on forecaster disagreement.

Featured Data

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Livingston Survey

The oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia

Updated: 15 Dec ’23

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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States

Updated: 09 Feb ’24

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Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Updated: 29 Feb ’24

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Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists

The real-time data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of time series of major macroeconomic variables. The data set may be used by macroeconomic researchers to verify empirical results, to analyze policy, or to forecast. All data are updated at the end of each month.

Updated: 29 Feb ’24

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GDPplus

Measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points

Updated: 28 Feb ’24

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Aruoba Term Structure of Inflation Expectations

A continuous curve of inflation expectations three to 120 months ahead, analogous to a yield curve

Updated: 23 Feb ’24