Real-Time Data Research

The Real-Time Data Research Center is a source of knowledge and expertise about real-time macroeconomic data, surveys of macroeconomic forecasts, and macroeconomic modeling. Established in August 2008, the center is part of our Research Department.

About the Data

The Real-Time Data Research Center produces macroeconometric analyses and collects and maintains a variety of data sets of value to macroeconomists and monetary policymakers. Our mission is to be the global source of economic research around real-time data, macroeconomic forecast surveys, and macroeconomic modeling, and the valuable insights to be drawn from that research for monetary policymaking. Learn more about the purposes and functions of the Real-Time Data Research Center, meet the staff and view their working papers and articles, and read about our visiting scholars program.

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Featured Data Sets

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Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Updated: 29 Feb ’24

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Aruoba Term Structure of Inflation Expectations

A continuous curve of inflation expectations three to 120 months ahead, analogous to a yield curve

Updated: 23 Feb ’24

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Measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points

Updated: 28 Feb ’24

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Partisan Conflict Index

Tracks the degree of political disagreement among U.S. politicians at the federal level.

Updated: 07 Feb ’24

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Tealbook (formerly Greenbook) Data Sets

This data set contains Tealbook/Greenbook projections for many of the variables also forecast in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF).

Updated: 09 Feb ’24

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Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists

The real-time data set consists of vintages, or snapshots, of time series of major macroeconomic variables. The data set may be used by macroeconomic researchers to verify empirical results, to analyze policy, or to forecast. All data are updated at the end of each month.

Updated: 29 Feb ’24

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Philadelphia Research Intertemporal Stochastic Model-II (PRISM-II)

The Philadelphia Research Intertemporal Stochastic Model-II (PRISM-II) is the second-generation dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that is being developed by the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Updated: 15 Dec ’23

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Projections for the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

Individual projections of the members of the Board of Governors and the Federal Reserve Bank presidents made prior to the Federal Reserve Chairman’s semiannual monetary policy report to the Congress.

Updated: 14 Aug ’18

Featured Surveys and Reports

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Livingston Survey

The oldest continuous survey of economists' expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia

Updated: 15 Dec ’23

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Survey of Professional Forecasters

The oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States

Updated: 09 Feb ’24