The May 13, 2021, update for the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is accompanied by some permanent but minor changes to our presentation. We are eliminating XLSX files corresponding to the ADS vintages for particular years and making minor changes to the format of the PDF charts. The remaining XLSX files feature a new format for the observation date shown in the first column. We are also adding a new file of technical documentation on our methods for constructing the index.
Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency. Its underlying (seasonally adjusted) economic indicators (weekly initial jobless claims; monthly payroll employment, monthly industrial production, monthly real personal income less transfer payments, monthly real manufacturing and trade sales; and quarterly real GDP) blend high-frequency and low-frequency data. The ADS index on this web page is updated in real time as new or revised data on the index's underlying components are released. Hence at the time of any ADS update, the index is based on all information on all indicators available at that time.
The average value of the ADS index is zero. Progressively bigger positive values indicate progressively better-than-average conditions, whereas progressively more negative values indicate progressively worse-than-average conditions. The ADS index may be used to compare business conditions at different times. A value of -3.0, for example, would indicate business conditions noticeably worse than at any time in either the 1990-91 or the 2001 recession, during which the ADS index never dropped below -2.0.
ADS Plots and Tables
- Most Current ADS Index Vintage: This XLSX file provides the most current daily estimates.
- Plot of ADS Business Conditions Index Since 1960
- Plot of ADS Business Conditions Index Since 2000
- Plot of ADS Business Conditions Index Since Last Peak
- Plot of ADS Business Conditions Index for the Most Recent Two Years
- Tentacle Plot: A plot over the past year of the 10 most recently updated ADS business conditions indexes, as assessed in real time.
- Tentacle Spreadsheet: Vintages of the ADS business conditions index, as assessed in real time. The vintages are available in one file containing all vintages.
- All vintages (5.1 MB)
- Plot of ADS Index Components
- Background Discussion of September-October 2008
- A Look at the Accuracy of the ADS Index (related data; updating discontinued)
The ADS business conditions index is based on the framework developed in Aruoba, S.B., Diebold, F.X. and Scotti, C. (2009), "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 27:4 (October 2009), pp. 417-27.
Subsequently implemented refinements to the ADS index are discussed in "Updates on ADS Index Calculation."
View a complete list of upcoming release dates on the Economic Release Calendar.