The Economy

We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.

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Market-Making with Search and Information Frictions

WP 18-20/R – New regulations and technological innovations have made it easier for investors to contact dealers and trade more quickly. However, these developments do not necessarily imply that markets will become more liquid.

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Model Averaging Prediction for Possibly Nonstationary Autoregressions

WP 23-08 – This paper considers the problem of model averaging (MA) predictions for the integrated autoregressive processes of infinite order (AR(1)), which accommodates many stationary and nonstationary models in practice.

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Working Paper

The Changing Polarization of Party Ideologies: The Role of Sorting

WP 23-07 – History shows that when political parties become more polarized along one dimension of policy, they become less polarized along some other dimension. We explain how this can happen via changes in the ideological makeup of parties.





New Perspectives on Consumer Behavior in Credit and Payments Markets: Call for Papers

Paper Submission Deadline: June 15, 2023

The Conundrum of Zero APR: An Analytical Framework

WP 23-06 – Are zero APR promotional rates on credit cards optimal for consumers? We analyze this question using the standard model of unsecured lending. We conclude that such a contractual arrangement is suboptimal in that environment.

The Economy



Many of our economists conduct research in areas of macro- and microeconomics and regularly contribute to policy discussions. You can find out more about these economists and their work by clicking on their highlighted names.