The Economy

We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.

A man checks his cell phone while browsing the freezer section of the grocery store.

Macroeconomics

Article

Trends and Determinants of U.S. Markups

Research in Focus — Enghin Atalay of the Philadelphia Fed and his coauthors examined markups over time and considered the role of firm costs, market concentration, and consumer preferences.

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Macroeconomics

Article

Generative AI: A Turning Point for Labor's Share?

Economic Insights — A big risk associated with artificial intelligence is its potential to trigger a once-in-a-lifetime decline in labor’s share of national income.

A Quantitative Model for Mapping the Consequences of Public Housing Demolitions

Research in Focus — Using Chicago’s housing stock as the basis for a quantitative model, the authors reveal the household-level economic consequences of demolishing public housing.

Event

Apr

19

2024

Fintech and Financial Institutions Research Conference

University of Delaware’s FinTech Innovation Hub

Monetary Policy

Working Paper

Price-Level Determination Under the Gold Standard

WP 24-06 – How does an economy behave in a historical environment where gold is the international monetary standard? We find that key features of this monetary system are long-run price stability and the nonneutrality of money in the short run.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Inference Based on Time-Varying SVARs Identified with Sign Restrictions

WP 24-05 – We propose a new methodology for causal inference in time-varying structural vector autoregressions. We illustrate our approach for inference by analyzing the role played by monetary policy during the latest inflation surge.