The Economy
We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.
Working Paper
The Dynamics of Ample Reserves
WP 26-34 – How monetary policy is implemented can have significant implications for the dynamics of the central bank’s balance sheet.
Working Paper
Is Mortgage Lock-In Responsible for Housing Market Tightness?
WP 26-33 – Elevated mortgage rates discourage homeowners from moving, as relocating triggers a reset of mortgage terms — a phenomenon termed “lock-in.”
Research
Our Research Department's high-quality academic and original research supports the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Bank's leadership as they address economic, finance, and public policy issues.
Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index
17 Jul ’26
An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency
Article
Forecasting Recessions Using an “At-Risk” Transformation to Identify Unusual Weakness in Indicators
07 Jul ’26
Research in Focus — The Philadelphia Fed’s Minchul Shin and his coauthor forecast recessions by transforming economic indicators into binary signals, often outperforming alternative methods.
COVID-19
COVID-19 and the Philadelphia Fed
Get the Philadelphia Fed’s latest information, resources, and research on the coronavirus pandemic's impact on businesses, households, and communities.
Event
Oct
9-10
2026
2026 Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis, Methods, and Applications
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Working Paper
Underwater: Strategic Trading and Risk Management in Bank Securities Portfolios
WP 25-31/R – We use bond-level data to study how U.S. banks managed securities portfolio risk during the 2022–23 interest-rate surge.
Working Paper
The Health Channel of Business Cycles
WP 26-32 – We document that economic contractions causally worsen health among working-age adults and that poor health predicts negative labor market outcomes. These findings reveal a health channel of business cycles.
Research
Research Assistant Opportunities for College Graduates
Working as a research assistant at the Philadelphia Fed is a rewarding experience, whichever career path you ultimately choose to pursue.