The Economy

We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.

Row of buildings gutted by fire.

Regional Economics

Working Paper

The Bronx Is Burning: Urban Disinvestment Effects of the Fair Access to Insurance Requirements

WP 25-16 – This study examines the consequences of FAIR plans in the 1960s and 1970s. Though meant to address insurance redlining, these plans unintentionally created moral hazard, leading to housing disinvestment and neighborhood change.

May 2025 Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey

A monthly survey of nonmanufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District

Piped Water and Sewer Access: Measuring Its Benefits for 19th Century Chicago and Its Relevance Today

Research in Focus — Using land values, Allison Shertzer of the Philadelphia Fed and her coauthors estimate the benefits of piped water and sewers in 19th century Chicago, with broader applicability.

View of Federal Reserve Board building from outside

Monetary Policy

Working Paper

Monetary Policy with Inelastic Asset Markets

WP 25-15 – I develop a model to study the effects of a central bank’s interest rate and balance sheet policies when financial intermediaries’ asset demand is inelastic.

Event

Oct

3-4

2025

Frontiers in Machine Learning and Economics: Methods and Applications – 2025

The University of Chicago Booth School of Business | Chicago

Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability

Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability tracks the rate at which U.S. workers transition from one employer to another in a given month.

Measuring Climate Transition Risk at the Regional Level with an Application to Community Banks

WP 25-11 – We base our measure of U.S. climate transition risk on an estimate of an emissions tax’s effect on firm value, aggregated to the region. The size and geographic concentration of the effect depend on the tax’s pass-through to prices.