The Economy

We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.

Unintended Consequences of Regulating Central Clearing

WP 25-24 – Recent U.S. and European regulations promote centrally clearing derivatives to reduce complexity and systemic risk in the financial system. We argue that more central clearing does not guarantee reduced systemic risk.

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Consumer Credit

Article

In Consumer Credit Markets, Can Fairness and Profits Rise Simultaneously?

Research in Focus — Through a novel combination of machine learning and fairness goals, four researchers show how consumer credit can be distributed more fairly while maintaining lender profitability.

Fintech Innovations in Banking: Fintech Partnership and Default Rate on Bank Loans

WP 25-21 – We explore whether banks could leverage data and technology to expand their customer base without taking on more credit risk. Previous studies have not explored the impact of fintech partnerships on the quality of banks’ loan portfolios.

Event

Oct

3-4

2025

Frontiers in Machine Learning and Economics: Methods and Applications – 2025

The University of Chicago Booth School of Business | Chicago

Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability

Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability tracks the rate at which U.S. workers transition from one employer to another in a given month.

Macroeconomics

Article

Understanding Job Growth

Economic Insights — Even seemingly healthy job growth might hide weaknesses in the economy if a large portion of that growth happens in acyclical sectors such as health care and government.