The Economy

We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.

Banking Regulation with Risk of Sovereign Default

WP 26-25 – Banking regulation's failure to recognize the riskiness of government debt induces domestic banks to purchase risky government bonds and lowers the government’s borrowing costs. A government might use banking regulation to avert a default.

When Market Conditions Turn Volatile, Why Don’t Banks Use Bond Portfolios as Shock Absorbers?

Research in Focus — Three economists explain why banks didn’t adjust their bond portfolios during the 2022–2023 bout of rising interest rates.

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Flight to Safety Evaluating Stablecoin’s Role as a Safe-Haven Asset in DeFi Markets

WP 26-24 – This study examines the impact of the stablecoin Tether (USDT) on systemic liquidity across the Ethereum and Bitcoin markets, utilizing an event study approach that integrates on-chain wallet data, pricing, and financial metrics.

Event

Oct

9-10

2026

Call for Papers: 2026 Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis, Methods, and Applications

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Monetary Policy

Working Paper

Are Fiscal Transfers Inflationary?

WP 26-23 – We assess the inflationary effects of fiscal transfers by leveraging advances in the identification of fiscal policy shocks within the recently proposed rotation-invariant time-varying structural vector autoregression.

AI-Enabled Fraud Is On the Rise — Here’s How to Beat It

A February 2024 deepfake scam in Hong Kong, where an employee wired $3.2 million to fraudsters posing as executives, highlights a critical reality: AI-enabled fraud is on the rise.