The Economy

We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.

How Do Large, Sophisticated Cryptocurrency Trades Impact Broader DeFi Market Dynamics?

WP 26-42 – Using transaction-level data for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) matched to public “Whale Alert” signals, we examine how large-scale cryptocurrency trades shape market microstructure.

Regional Economics

Working Paper

The Bronx is Burning: Urban Disinvestment Effects of Fair Access to Insurance Requirements Plans

WP 25-16/R – We study the unintended effects of Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) plans developed by 26 states in the 1960s to address insurance redlining in urban neighborhoods.

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

The Economy

Working Paper

An Auditable AI Agent Loop for Empirical Economics: A Case Study in Forecast Combination

WP 26-41 – AI coding agents, general-purpose assistants that write and execute code, make empirical specification search fast and cheap, but they also widen hidden researcher degrees of freedom.

Event

Oct

9-10

2026

2026 Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis, Methods, and Applications

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Banking Trends: Who Benefits When Banks Must Share Your Data?

Economic Insights — Open banking boosts fintech competition, helping many but potentially creating risks for privacy and financial stability.

Monetary Policy

Working Paper

Structural Estimation with Unstructured Data

WP 26-40 – Standard macroeconomic data do not cleanly separate the systematic and nonsystematic components of monetary policy. We show that incorporating unstructured text data into the structural estimation of a DSGE model can sharpen this distinction.