The Economy

We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.

Close up photo of papers spread out on a table and the hands of two people working on the documents.

Delayed Sampling of Recent Immigrants in the Current Population Survey

Research Brief — We show that the Current Population Survey (CPS) undercounts immigrants for up to five years after arrival. We provide methods to interpolate year of immigration and correct for undercounting by upweighting recent immigrants observed in the CPS.

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Who Remains Unbanked in the United States and Why?

WP 25-02 – This paper conducts a detailed exploration of the factors associated with unbanked status among U.S. households and how these relationships evolved between 2015 and 2019.

Nonworking Parents or Hungry Children

Economic Insights — Did the expanded Child Tax Credit help struggling families? Did it also encourage parents to leave the workforce? Answering these questions can help policymakers decide whether to extend or permanently expand the credit in 2025.

Event

Apr

10-11

2025

2025 Fintech and Financial Institutions Research Conference

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability

Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability tracks the rate at which U.S. workers transition from one employer to another in a given month.

Regional Economics

Working Paper

Flood Underinsurance

WP 24-23 – Using data on expected flood damage and National Flood Insurance Program policies, we estimate annual flood risk protection gaps and underinsurance among single-family residences in the contiguous United States.