The Economy

We produce and compile research and data on the overall economy, banking and financial markets. Our goal is to help financial institutions operate in a safe manner and support a robust U.S. financial system.

Two coworkers talk while two others type at computers in a modern office setting.

Fintech Innovations in Banking: Fintech Partnership and Default Rate on Bank Loans

WP 25-21 – We explore whether banks could leverage data and technology to expand their customer base without taking on more credit risk. Previous studies have not explored the impact of fintech partnerships on the quality of banks’ loan portfolios.

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

An index designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency

Macroeconomics

Article

Understanding Job Growth

Economic Insights — Even seemingly healthy job growth might hide weaknesses in the economy if a large portion of that growth happens in acyclical sectors such as health care and government.

Close-up of portraits from various bank notes

Monetary Policy Report: Using Rules for Benchmarking, June 2025

This special report highlights ongoing work to benchmark the stance of monetary policy using a range of policy rules that are widely employed in studies of monetary economics.

Event

Oct

3-4

2025

Frontiers in Machine Learning and Economics: Methods and Applications – 2025

The University of Chicago Booth School of Business | Chicago

Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability

Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability tracks the rate at which U.S. workers transition from one employer to another in a given month.

Monetary Policy

Working Paper

International Currency Dominance

WP 25-20 – We propose a model of the international monetary system. Our model allows us to study how macroeconomic fundamentals and government policies can lead to the emergence of a dominant currency.