Greenbook Data Sets
Several data sets contain the projections from the Greenbooks of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. The Greenbook is produced before each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Using an assumption about monetary policy, the Research staff at the Board of Governors prepares projections about how the economy will fare in the future. These projections are made available to the public after a lag of five years.
This data set contains Greenbook projections for many of the variables also forecast in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The variables include real GDP and its components, nominal GDP, five measures of inflation, unemployment, industrial production, and housing starts. Altogether, the Philadelphia Fed's Greenbook Data Set includes Greenbook projections for 15 variables. Previously, we recorded the projections from four Greenbooks each year with publication dates that were aligned (as closely as possible) with the quarterly deadline dates of the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Now, we record all Greenbooks in the data set. The new data set also includes Greenbook historical values as well as projections.
By rule, the projections from the Greenbook are released to the public with a lag of five years.
This data set contains Greenbook historical values and projections for the real-time output gap and assumptions for financial variables, including the federal funds rate, other interest rates, the exchange rate index (nominal and real), and equity prices. This data set will be updated annually, usually in April.
This data set contains the Federal Reserve staff's real-time estimates of the NAIRU. This data set will be updated annually, usually in April.
This data set contains Greenbook projections of all variables for all Greenbooks from January 1966 to December 2013. For some variables, the projections are for levels; for other variables, the projections are for growth rates. This data set will be updated annually, usually in April.
The PDF files above have been converted into ASCII files from January 1978 to June 1998. Updating these files is under consideration. For more recent forecasts, please see the PDF data set from the Board of Governors.