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Survey of Professional Forecasters

New Probability Ranges
Beginning with the 2020:Q2 survey, changes were made to the definition of the probability bins for real GDP growth and the unemployment rate over the next four years. For more information, see "spf-documentation.pdf" on pp. 45 and 47.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters' web page offers the actual releases, documentation, mean and median forecasts of all the respondents as well as the individual responses from each economist. The individual responses are kept confidential by using identification numbers.

Recent Releases Last update: May 15, 2020, at 10:00 a.m. ET

• Second Quarter 2020 
• First Quarter 2020 

Previous Releases

View previous releases of the Survey of Professional Forecasters going back to Third Quarter 1990. All surveys are in PDF format.

- select a quarter - 1Q 2019 2Q 2019 3Q 2019 4Q 2019 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2018 4Q 2018 1Q 2017 2Q 2017 3Q 2017 4Q 2017 1Q 2016 2Q 2016 3Q 2016 4Q 2016 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 1Q 2014 2Q 2014 3Q 2014 4Q 2014 1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Q 2013 4Q 2013 1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012 4Q 2012 1Q 2011 2Q 2011 3Q 2011 4Q 2011 1Q 2010 2Q 2010 3Q 2010 4Q 2010 1Q 2009 2Q 2009 3Q 2009 4Q 2009 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 4Q 2008 1Q 2007 2Q 2007 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2006 2Q 2006 3Q 2006 4Q 2006 1Q 2005 2Q 2005 3Q 2005 4Q 2005 1Q 2004 2Q 2004 3Q 2004 4Q 2004 1Q 2003 2Q 2003 3Q 2003 4Q 2003 1Q 2002 2Q 2002 3Q 2002 4Q 2002 1Q 2001 2Q 2001 3Q 2001 4Q 2001 1Q 2000 2Q 2000 3Q 2000 4Q 2000 1Q 1999 2Q 1999 3Q 1999 4Q 1999 1Q 1998 2Q 1998 3Q 1998 4Q 1998 1Q 1997 2Q 1997 3Q 1997 4Q 1997 1Q 1996 2Q 1996 3Q 1996 4Q 1996 1Q 1995 2Q 1995 3Q 1995 4Q 1995 1Q 1994 2Q 1994 3Q 1994 4Q 1994 1Q 1993 2Q 1993 3Q 1993 4Q 1993 1Q 1992 2Q 1992 3Q 1992 4Q 1992 1Q 1991 2Q 1991 3Q 1991 4Q 1991 3Q 1990 4Q 1990

Historical SPF Forecast Data

Baseline Variables

• Download one variable at a time
• Download all variables: mean, median, cross-sectional dispersion, and individual forecasts
• Probability Variables: Excel file containing mean probabilities of annual inflation and output growth falling into various ranges and the mean probability that quarter-over-quarter output growth will be negative.
• Short-Term and Long-Term Inflation Forecasts: Expected inflation over the next year and the next 10 years.
• Anxious Index: The probability of a decline in real GDP in the quarter following the quarter in which the survey is taken. Includes chart and data.
• Errata: Shows corrections to the historical data. (731 KB, 46 pages; last update: November 30, 2017)

Special Variables and Special Questions

• Long-run Inflation Forecasts and the FOMC's Longer-Run Goal for Inflation (Second Quarter 2012)
• Growth in House Prices (First-Quarter Surveys)
• Extended Forecasts for Real GDP, Unemployment, and 3-month and 10-year Treasuries (Fourth Quarter 2009)
• Extended Horizon for Real GDP, Unemployment, and 3-month and 10-year Treasuries (Third Quarter 2009)
• Extended Horizon for Real GDP and Unemployment (Second Quarter 2009)
• Inflation Targeting (Fourth Quarter 2007)

Resources

• Documentation: Provides information on all variables, transformations, and files in the survey. (390 KB, 62 pages; last update: August 29, 2018)
• Data Sources and Descriptions: Shows the specifications of the economic variables being forecast. (60 KB, 11 pages; last update: August 14, 2018)
• Economic Insights article: "Fifty Years of the Survey of Professional Forecasters"
• Forecast Error Statistics: Shows the latest statistics on the accuracy of the projections for most variables in the survey. For an article summarizing the results through the survey of 2010 Q2, see Realistic Evaluation of Real-Time Forecasts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
• SPF Panelists' Forecasting Methods: See this paper for the results of a special survey on the methods of professional forecasters.
• Academic Bibliography: Contains a comprehensive list of academic articles that discuss or use the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
• Research Brief: "Battle of the Forecasts: Mean vs. Median as the Survey of Professional Forecasters’ Consensus”  
• Dates of Previous Surveys: Shows the release dates of previous surveys.
• Examples of Survey Forms: See a recent survey form and several forms from the past.
• Discussion of Survey of Professional Forecasters' Long-Term Forecast for Inflation
• Discussion of the New Industry Classification (144 KB, 12 pages)

Other Forecast Surveys

• ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters