Economic Insights — The coauthor of this issue's article about the Fed's latest fight against inflation explains the finer points of the econometric model he uses to make sense of the Fed's behavior, past and present.
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At the dawn of the century, Jonas Arias was just another soccer-and-tennis-loving teenager in Argentina. But when his country's economy cratered in 2001–2002, it triggered in him a lifelong interest in macroeconomics. Today he applies cutting-edge econometric techniques to make sense of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy-making. Thanks to his research, we can analyze the role played by monetary policy during the postpandemic inflation surge of 2021–2023 using a flexible framework that accounts for changes in the structural relations of the economy such as those we witnessed during the pandemic.
This article appeared in the Second Quarter 2025 issue of Economic Insights. Download and read the full issue.
