Jonas Arias

Economic Advisor and Economist

jonas.arias@phil.frb.org

Areas of Expertise

Jonas earned his Ph.D. and M.A. in economics at Duke University, and his B.A. in economics at the Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. He joined the Federal Reserve Board of Governors as an economist in 2013 and came to the Philadelphia Fed in 2016. He studies macroeconomics, Bayesian econometrics, and time series econometrics.

Featured Work

Monetary Policy

Report

Monetary Policy Report: Using Rules for Benchmarking, March 2024

March 2024

This special report highlights ongoing work to benchmark the stance of monetary policy using a range of policy rules that are widely employed in studies of monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Inference Based on Time-Varying SVARs Identified with Sign Restrictions

Jonas Arias,
Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez,
Minchul Shin &
Daniel F. Waggoner

February 2024

WP 24-05 – We propose a new methodology for causal inference in time-varying structural vector autoregressions. We illustrate our approach for inference by analyzing the role played by monetary policy during the latest inflation surge.

Macroeconomics

Working Paper

Uniform Priors for Impulse Responses

Jonas Arias,
Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez &
Daniel F. Waggoner

September 2022

WP 22-30 – There has been a call to abandon the conventional method for Bayesian inference in set-identified structural vector autoregressions on the grounds that it could be overly informative for posterior inference. This paper challenges this call.

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