PIES is a quarterly survey of firms in the Third District (Delaware, southern New Jersey, and eastern and central Pennsylvania) that helps to provide a better understanding of the price expectations of businesses. Researchers at the Philadelphia Fed began collecting PIES data in late 2015.
PIES asks each firm for two business forecasts: (1) the expected change in prices for its own goods or services over the next four quarters, and (2) the expected compensation (wage and benefits) per employee. PIES also asks firms to provide two U.S. inflation forecasts: (1) for the next four quarters, and (2) a 10-year annual average.
Since mid-2019, we have also asked firms about the change in prices for their own goods or services over the past four quarters, which allows for comparison with firms’ prior forecasts and with various measures of inflation.
We collect responses once a quarter in our monthly surveys — the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey and the Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. For each question, the respondents provide point estimates. PIES data present the mean and median response for each question.
