Definitions

PIES Data Visualization Definitions

The data explorer visualizations display the trimmed means of responses for each PIES variable. Additionally, PIES forecast data are shown for the period for which they are forecast, not for the period in which they were collected. For example, data collected in 2025 Q4 for firms’ one-year-ahead expectations are plotted in 2026 Q4.

Expected Own Firm Prices

Expected change (%) in the firms’ own prices over the next year
Question: List your expected annual percent change with respect to the prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold) over the next year.

Expected Own Firm Compensation

Firms’ expected change (%) in employee compensation over the next year
Question: List your expected annual percent change with respect to compensation your firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits) over the next year.

Expected U.S. Inflation

Firms’ expected U.S. inflation rate (%) over the next year
Question: List your expected annual percent change with respect to prices U.S. consumers will pay (for goods and services) over the next year.

Reported Change

Reported change (%) in the firms’ own prices over the past year
Question: List your expected annual percent change with respect to the prices your firm did receive (for its own goods and services sold) over the last year.

Expected Change

Expected change (%) in the firms’ own prices over the next year
Question: List your expected annual percent change with respect to the prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold) over the next year.

U.S. Inflation

Year-over-year percent change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), measured by averaging the monthly CPI estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on a quarterly basis

PIES Data Download Definitions

Each data point in the data download file represents the 10 percent trimmed mean or median response for a given PIES question and firm type.

Each variable listed below corresponds to PIES data for firm type * where:
* = all represents all firms (manufacturing and nonmanufacturing),
* = m represents manufacturing firms,
* = n represents nonmanufacturing firms.

Variables with the suffix _med represent the median response.

For example, piesownprices_all is the average expected change in firms’ own prices over the next year for all firms, and piesownprices_all_med is the median expected change in firms’ own prices for all firms.

A data dictionary is included within the data download file.

Note: The data in the download file are stored by the quarter in which the PIES data were collected. For example, for 2025 Q4 data, forecast variables (piesownprices, piescompensation, piesusinflation) reflect expected changes four quarters ahead, from 2025 Q4 to 2026 Q4, and piesownpricespast reflects the reported change over the past four quarters, from 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q4.

survey_quarter

Quarter in which PIES data were collected, in YYYYQ# format.

piesownprices_*

Expected change in firms’ own prices over the next year for firm type *.

piesownpricespast_*

Reported change in firms’ own prices over the past year for firm type *.

piescompensation_*

Expected change in firms’ own compensation over the next year for firm type *.

piesusinflation_*

Expected change in prices U.S. consumers will pay (for goods and services) over the next year for firm type *.

piesusinflation10yr_*

Expected average annual percent change in prices U.S. consumers will pay (for goods and services) for the next 10 years for firm type *.