Measuring and understanding inflation expectations is important for understanding inflation dynamics. Surveys remain one of the most effective ways to gather this information, but few surveys have focused on capturing the expectations of businesses. PIES helps fill that gap by offering a comprehensive perspective on firms' thinking, capturing not only expectations for general inflation but also firm-specific projections for prices and compensation.
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Over the past decade, the PIES data show that firms’ forecasts have generally mirrored broader inflation trends. Even if expectations were understated during periods of sudden economic upheaval, PIES presented a reliable signal for identifying inflection points in inflation. Expectations surveys are an important complement to the Consumer Price Index and model-based forecasts; they help policymakers assess whether expectations remain anchored and how inflation risks are perceived across the economy.
This article appeared in the Fourth Quarter 2025 issue of Economic Insights. Download and read the full issue.
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