Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
Philadelphia Fed Researchers Weighing How the
Pandemic Affected Seasonal Adjustment Approach
The seasonal factors that our researchers at the Philadelphia Fed use to calculate the survey’s diffusion indexes were affected by atypical patterns because of the onset of the pandemic one year ago. For several variables, revised seasonal factors shifted by much more than is normal. For those variables, the diffusion indexes are overstated during months in which the unadjusted data are normally high and are understated during months in which the unadjusted data are normally low. We may revise our seasonal adjustment approach after further investigation.
The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants: employment, working hours, new and unfilled orders, shipments, inventories, delivery times, prices paid, and prices received. The survey has been conducted each month since May 1968.
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For those who wish to know the exact order of publication, our intention, in the ordinary course, is for the .txt file containing all release details to precede all other supplemental web and historical data files. As an example, you can download the January 2016 release.
Last updated: March 18, 2021, 8:30 AM EST
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Archives: PDF versions of the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey are available for download in ZIP archives.