Due to the lack of data for most variables during the federal government shutdown, historical levels for the third quarter of 2025 and October 2025 were not available to panelists. We asked the forecasters to provide their projections for these historical values, but many forecasters did not. Therefore, growth rates using the third quarter 2025 or October 2025 value are based on a small sample.
Livingston Survey
Forecasters Project Steady Rates of Real GDP Growth and Steady Unemployment Rate
The 21 participants in the December 2025 Livingston Survey projected higher output growth in the second half of 2025 and the first half of 2026 compared with their projections in the June 2025 survey. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, expect 2.0 percent annualized growth in real GDP during the second half of 2025. They project real GDP will continue to grow at 2.0 percent over the first half of 2026 and will be 1.9 percent in the second half of 2026.
The Philadelphia Fed’s Livingston Survey is the oldest survey of economists’ expectations. The survey was started in 1946 by the late columnist Joseph A. Livingston. It summarizes the forecast of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia. It is published twice a year, in June and December.
Return to the main page for the Livingston Survey.
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