Forecasters Project Lower Rates of Real GDP Growth and Rising Unemployment Rate

The 21 participants in the June Livingston Survey predict much lower output growth for 2025 and the first half of 2026 compared with their projections in the December 2024 survey. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, expect 0.5 percent annualized growth in real GDP during the first half of 2025. They project 0.9 percent annualized growth over the second half of 2025. The forecasters predict that real GDP will reach an annual rate of 1.8 percent growth in the first half of 2026.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Livingston Survey is the oldest survey of economists’ expectations. The survey was started in 1946 by the late columnist Joseph A. Livingston. It summarizes the forecast of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia. It is published twice a year, in June and December.

Return to the main page for the Livingston Survey.