Forecasters Strengthen Their Projections for Real GDP Growth and Lower Their Predictions for Unemployment Rate

The 23 participants in the June Livingston Survey predict higher output growth for the first half of 2024 than they predicted in the December 2023 survey. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, now project that the economy’s output (real GDP) will grow at an annual rate of 2.0 percent during the first half of 2024. They expect weaker conditions in the second half of 2024, when growth is expected to be at an annual rate of 1.7 percent. Both projections represent upward revisions from those of the December 2023 survey. Growth is expected to average an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first half of 2025.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Livingston Survey is the oldest survey of economists’ expectations. The survey was started in 1946 by the late columnist Joseph A. Livingston. It summarizes the forecast of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia. It is published twice a year, in June and December.

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