Forecasters Lower Their Forecasts for Real GDP Growth and the Unemployment Rate
The 18 participants in the June Livingston Survey predict sharply lower output growth for the first half of 2022 than they predicted in the December 2021 survey. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, now project that the economy’s output (real GDP) will grow at an annual rate of 0.5 percent during the first half of 2022. They expect stronger conditions in the second half of 2022, when growth is expected to be at an annual rate of 2.1 percent. Both projections represent sharp downward revisions from those of the December 2021 survey. Growth will average an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the first half of 2023.
The Philadelphia Fed’s Livingston Survey is the oldest survey of economists’ expectations. The survey was started in 1946 by the late columnist Joseph A. Livingston. It summarizes the forecast of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia. It is published twice a year, in June and December.
Return to the main page for the Livingston Survey.