Forecasters Revise Down Real GDP Growth for Second Half of 2021;
Revise Up Growth for First Half of 2022

The 20 participants in the December Livingston Survey nearly halved their forecasts for real GDP growth in the second half of 2021 compared with their projections in the June 2021 survey. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, expect an increase of 3.8 percent (annualized) in real GDP during the second half of 2021. They project 3.9 percent growth (annualized) over the first half of 2022. The forecasters peg growth at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the second half of 2022.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Livingston Survey is the oldest survey of economists’ expectations. The survey was started in 1946 by the late columnist Joseph A. Livingston. It summarizes the forecast of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia. It is published twice a year, in June and December.

Return to the main page for the Livingston Survey.