Forecasters Strengthen Their Forecasts for Real GDP Growth and the Unemployment Rate

The 19 participants in the June Livingston Survey predict sharply higher output growth for the first half of 2021 than they predicted in the December 2020 survey. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, now project that the economy’s output (real GDP) will grow at an annual rate of 7.8 percent during the first half of 2021. The economic rebound is expected to continue in the second half of 2021 when growth is expected to be at an annual rate of 6.7 percent. Both projections represent sharp upward revisions from those of the December 2020 survey. Growth will average an annual rate of 3.7 percent in the first half of 2022.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Livingston Survey is the oldest survey of economists’ expectations. The survey was started in 1946 by the late columnist Joseph A. Livingston. It summarizes the forecast of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia. It is published twice a year, in June and December.

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