Sharply Negative Growth in Real GDP and High Unemployment for First Half of 2020, Recovery Second Half of 2020

The participants in the June Livingston Survey predict sharply lower output growth for the first half of 2020. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, project that the economy’s output (real GDP) will fall at an annual rate of -20.2 percent during the first half of 2020. The economy is expected to start recovering in the second half of 2020. Growth in the second half of 2020 is expected to rise to an annual rate of 9.6 percent. Growth will average an annual rate of 7.2 percent in the first half of 2021.

The Philadelphia Fed’s Livingston Survey is the oldest survey of economists’ expectations. The survey was started in 1946 by the late columnist Joseph A. Livingston. It summarizes the forecast of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia. It is published twice a year, in June and December.

Return to the main page for the Livingston Survey.