Forecasters Predict Lower Output Growth for the Second Half of 2019
The 24 participants in the December Livingston Survey predict lower output growth over the second half of 2019. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, project that real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the second half of 2019. Projections hold steady at 1.9 percent (annual rate) in the first half of 2020 and reach 1.8 percent (annual rate) in the second half of 2020. Compared with the June survey, the projection marks a downward revision for the second half of 2019 but no revision for the first half of 2020.
The Philadelphia Fed’s Livingston Survey is the oldest survey of economists’ expectations. The survey was started in 1946 by the late columnist Joseph A. Livingston. It summarizes the forecast of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia. It is published twice a year, in June and December.
Return to the main page for the Livingston Survey.