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Sunday, October 4, 2015

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Median Forecast: Survey of Professional Forecasters

A Note to Users of the SPF Data: File MeanGrowth.xls

Summary. We recently discovered an error in the file for the growth of the mean forecasts for the levels of SPF variables. The error was in the file labeled MeanGrowth.xls. The error affected no other files, even other files having growth rates. Note also that the error in no way affected the data that have been reported in our survey newsletters: The survey newsletters have correct data in all tables.

Details. Beginning with the files that we released for the fourth-quarter survey of 2014 (published on November 17, 2014), we incorrectly reported data in the file labeled MeanGrowth.xls. The file was supposed to report the growth rates of the mean forecasts for levels of SPF variables, but it instead reported growth rates for the median forecasts for levels.

Corrections. On July 8, 2015, we fixed the problem in MeanGrowth.xls and posted the correction on our website.

For additional information, please contact:

Tom Stark
Assistant Director and Manager
Real-Time Data Research Center
Research Department
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Phone: 215-574-6436

The median forecasts from all the surveys since the fourth quarter of 1968 are available in the data set listed below. This data set is in Excel format. It may be helpful to read the documentation listed below before accessing the data set.

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