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GDPplus

GDPplus: An Alternative Measure of Real U.S. Output Growth

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GDPplus

 

Real GDP

 

Real GDI

GDPplus is a statistically optimal estimate of the quarter-over-quarter growth rate of real GDP in continuously compounded annualized percentage points. It is produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia as the Kalman-smoothed value of a signal extraction from the BEA's official estimates for real gross domestic product and real gross domestic income.

Real GDP (RGDP) is the BEA's official estimate of real gross domestic product measured by the method that the BEA calls the expenditures approach. The Philadelphia Fed converts the data into quarter-over-quarter growth rates in continuously compounded annualized percentage points.

Real GDI (RGDI) is the BEA's official estimate of real gross domestic product (sometimes called real gross domestic income) measured by the method that the BEA calls the income approach. The Philadelphia Fed converts the data into quarter-over-quarter growth rates in continuously compounded annualized percentage points.

 

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REAL GRGDP

2014 Q2

100.1%

Notes: Shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. The data measure the quarter-over-quarter growth rate in continuously compounded annualized percentage points.

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and NBER via Haver Analytics. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

GDPplus is the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's measure of the quarter-over-quarter rate of growth of real output in continuously compounded annualized percentage points. It improves on the Bureau of Economic Analysis's expenditure-side and income-side measures.

The expenditure-side measure (real GDP) is more commonly used by economic analysts, whereas the income-side measure, sometimes called real gross domestic income (real GDI), is little used, but each contains useful information. In particular, as proposed in Aruoba, Diebold, Nalewaik, Schorfheide, and Song (ADNSS) , one can view both real GDP and real GDI as noisy indicators of true, underlying, latent real gross domestic product, which can then be estimated using optimal filtering methods. Here we implement the ADNSS statistical framework. We call the optimal estimate GDPplus. (We construct GDPplus via the Kalman smoother.)

On this web page, we provide GDPplus data. We will update the page whenever we construct a new GDPplus vintage, whether due to the BEA's release of an additional observation or a revision of previously available observations for the real GDP and real GDI indicators. Note that our annualized growth rates use the formula for continuous compounding and are expressed in percentage points. We estimate the ADNSS two-equation model with the identifying restriction on the variance matrix for the shocks. We re-estimate the model for every new vintage using the method of maximum likelihood.

GDPplus Data Files Last update:  , at 2:00 p.m. ET

• Excel spreadsheet for GDPplus chart data (plotted above).
• Excel spreadsheet of GDPplus vintages. (122 KB)

Resources

The GDPplus methodology is based on the measurement-error approach discussed in the following papers:

Aruoba, S.B., F.X. Diebold, J. Nalewaik, F. Schorfheide, and D. Song, "Improving GDP Measurement: A Measurement-Error Perspective ," FRB Philadelphia Working Paper 13-16 (May 2013).

Aruoba, S.B., F.X. Diebold, J. Nalewaik, F. Schorfheide, and D. Song, "Improving GDP Measurement: A Measurement-Error Perspective," Journal of Econometrics, 191 (2016), pp. 384-397.

Additional references are provided in the above papers.

• Last update: May 28, 2020