December 2024 Note: Survey responses were collected from December 9 to December 16. Manufacturing activity in the region declined overall, according to the firms responding to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicator for current general activity remained negative and fell further, while the indexes for new orders and shipments declined and turned negative. The employment index edged down but continued to suggest increases in employment overall. The prices paid index moved higher, while the prices received index declined; both indexes continue to indicate overall increases in prices. The survey's broad indicators for future activity continue to suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Weaken The diffusion index for current general activity declined from -5.5 to -16.4 in December, its lowest reading since April 2023. Nearly 33 percent of the firms reported decreases in general activity this month (up from 23 percent last month), while 16 percent reported increases (little changed); 47 percent reported no change (down from 58 percent). The indexes for new orders and shipments both declined and turned negative. The new orders index fell 13 points to -4.3, its lowest reading since May. The shipments index declined 6 points to -1.9. On balance, the firms continued to report an increase in employment. The employment index edged down from 8.6 to 6.6 this month. More than 70 percent of the firms reported no change in employment levels this month. Over 17 percent of the firms reported increases, while 11 percent reported decreases. The average workweek index reversed most of last month's rise and returned to negative territory, falling from 17.4 to -8.2. Firms Continue to Report Overall Price Increases The prices paid index moved up 5 points to 31.2. Thirty-four percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 3 percent reported decreases; 63 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index fell 7 points to 7.3, its third consecutive monthly decline. Twelve percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods, 5 percent reported decreases, and 83 percent reported no change. Firms Report Lower Production, Little Change in Capacity Utilization In this month's special questions, the firms were asked to estimate their total production growth for the fourth quarter ending this month compared with the third quarter of 2024 (see Special Questions). A higher share of firms reported a decrease in production (50 percent) compared with the share reporting an increase (30 percent). Regarding firms' capacity utilization for the current quarter and one year ago, the median current capacity utilization rate reported among the responding firms was unchanged at 70 to 80 percent. Sixty percent of the firms reported labor supply as at least a slight constraint to capacity utilization in the current quarter, and the share of firms reporting it as a moderate or significant constraint (33 percent) edged up from when this question was asked in September (31 percent). More than half of the firms cited supply chains as a constraint in the current quarter. Looking ahead over the next three months, most firms expect the impacts of various factors to stay the same. However, the share of firms expecting supply chain impacts to worsen (17 percent) was higher than when this question was asked in September (9 percent). Most Future Indicators Soften but Remain Elevated The diffusion index for future general activity fell 26 points to 30.7 in December after jumping higher the previous two months. The share of firms expecting increases in activity over the next six months (49 percent) exceeded the share expecting decreases (18 percent); 23 percent expect no change. The future new orders and future shipments indexes both declined but remained above their historical averages. The future new orders index dropped 15 points to 51.6, and the shipments index edged down 2 points to 49.7. The firms continue to expect an overall increase in employment over the next six months, but the future employment index ticked down from a reading of 34.2 to 32.1. The future prices paid index declined 7 points to 56.4, while the future prices received index rose 10 points to 58.4. The future capital expenditures index fell from 24.9 to 18.8. Summary Responses to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest a decline overall in regional manufacturing activity this month. The indicator for current activity remained negative, while the new orders and shipments indexes declined and turned negative. On balance, the firms indicated an increase in employment and continued to report increases in prices. The survey's broad indicators for future activity continue to suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Special Questions (December 2024) 1. How will your firm's total production for the fourth quarter of 2024 compare with that of the third quarter of 2024? % of firms An increase of: 10% or more 3.3 5-10% 13.3 0-5% 13.3 Subtotal 30.0 (% of firms reporting an increase) No change 20.0 A decline of: 0-5% 13.3 5-10% 10.0 10% or more 26.7 Subtotal 50.0 (% of firms reporting a decrease) 2. Which of the following best characterizes your plant's percentage capacity utilization currently (2024:Q4) and one year ago (2023:Q4)? 2024:Q4 2023:Q4 Capacity Utilization Rate % of reporters % of reporters Less than 30% 0.0 0.0 30-40% 6.7 3.3 40-50% 0.0 0.0 50-60% 13.3 3.3 60-70% 26.7 20.0 70-80% 23.3 40.0 80-90% 20.0 26.7 90-100% 10.0 6.7 Median Utilization Rate 70-80 70-80 3. In the current quarter, to what degree have the following factors acted as constraints on capacity utilization? Not at all Slightly Moderately Significantly (%) (%) (%) (%) COVID-19 mitigation measures 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Energy markets 86.2 6.9 3.4 3.4 Financial capital 83.3 6.7 10.0 0.0 Labor supply 40.0 26.7 13.3 20.0 Supply chains 46.7 40.0 10.0 3.3 Other factors 76.2 4.8 0.0 19.0 4. Over the next three months, how do you expect the impacts of the following factors as constraints on capacity utilization to change? Worsen Stay the same Improve (%) (%) (%) COVID-19 mitigation measures 0.0 96.3 3.7 Energy markets 6.9 82.8 10.3 Financial capital 3.4 86.2 10.3 Labor supply 13.3 73.3 13.3 Supply chains 16.7 73.3 10.0 Other factors 5.0 80.0 15.0 Summary of Returns December 2024 December vs. November Six Months from Now vs. December Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business -5.5 16.3 46.6 32.7 -16.4 56.6 48.7 23.1 18.0 30.7 Conditions New Orders 8.9 25.9 41.3 30.2 -4.3 66.2 60.0 27.9 8.4 51.6 Shipments 4.5 22.1 47.3 24.0 -1.9 52.1 59.4 28.4 9.6 49.7 Unfilled Orders 6.8 33.3 47.6 14.4 18.9 28.8 19.1 68.4 7.9 11.2 Delivery Times -2.1 19.1 69.0 7.5 11.6 10.1 21.8 54.9 17.2 4.6 Inventories 5.4 16.8 56.0 19.1 -2.3 5.3 29.6 52.3 7.1 22.5 Prices Paid 26.6 34.0 63.2 2.8 31.2 63.7 57.7 40.9 1.4 56.4 Prices Received 14.3 12.0 83.4 4.7 7.3 48.5 61.1 33.9 2.7 58.4 Number of Emp. 8.6 17.2 70.4 10.6 6.6 34.2 36.0 59.1 3.9 32.1 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 17.4 8.8 72.8 17.0 -8.2 16.9 26.5 64.1 7.0 19.5 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 24.9 28.0 57.9 9.2 18.8 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through December 16, 2024. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: December 19, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. ET. November 2024 Note: Survey responses were collected from November 11 to November 18. Manufacturing activity in the region softened overall, according to the firms responding to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicator for current general activity turned negative, while the indexes for new orders and shipments declined but remained positive. The employment index turned positive, suggesting an increase in employment overall. Both price indexes indicate overall increases in prices and remain near their long-run averages. The firms continue to expect growth over the next six months, with growth expectations more widespread this month. Most Current Indicators Soften The diffusion index for current general activity fell from 10.3 to -5.5, its second negative reading since January. Nearly 18 percent of the firms reported increases in general activity this month (down from 24 percent last month), while 23 percent reported decreases (up from 14 percent); 58 percent reported no change (little changed from last month). The indexes for new orders and shipments also declined but remained positive: The new orders index decreased 5 points to 8.9, and the shipments index declined 3 points to 4.5. The firms reported an increase in employment, on balance, after reporting mostly steady employment last month. The employment index returned to positive territory, rising to 8.6. More than two-thirds of the firms reported no change in employment levels this month, while the share of firms reporting increases (17 percent) exceeded the share reporting decreases (9 percent). The average workweek index jumped 29 points to 17.4, its highest level since April 2022. Firms Continue to Report Overall Price Increases Both price indexes declined for the second consecutive month but remained positive. The prices paid index declined 3 points to 26.6. Nearly 27 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while none reported decreases; 67 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index fell 4 points to 14.3. Over 15 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods, 1 percent reported decreases, and 76 percent reported no change. Firms Expect Higher Increases in Own Prices In this month's special questions, the firms were asked to forecast the changes in prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters (see Special Questions). Regarding their own prices over the next year, the firms' median forecast was for an expected increase of 3.0 percent, up slightly from 2.8 percent when this question was last asked in August. The firms reported a median increase of 3.0 percent in their own prices over the past year, unchanged from last quarter. The firms expect their employee compensation costs (wages plus benefits on a per employee basis) to rise 3.4 percent over the next four quarters, down slightly from 3.5 percent in August. The firms' median forecast for the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year was also unchanged at 3.0 percent. Most Future Indicators Rise The diffusion index for future general activity jumped from 36.7 to 56.6 in November, its highest level since June 2021. The future new orders and shipments indexes rose to 66.2 and 52.1, respectively. Both indexes also reached their highest levels in over three years. The future prices paid index rose from 47.3 to 63.7, its highest level since April 2022. The future prices received index increased 9 points to 48.5. Expectations for overall increases in employment over the next six months were positive and more widespread, as the future employment index rose from 27.3 to 34.2. Summary Responses to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest softer regional manufacturing activity this month. The indicator for current activity fell into negative territory, and the new orders and shipments indexes also declined but remained positive. On balance, the firms indicated an increase in employment, and the price indexes were near their long-run averages. The survey's broad indicators for future activity suggest more widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Special Questions (November 2024) Please list the annual percent change with respect to the following: Current Previous (Aug. 2024) For your firm: Forecast for next year (2024Q4-2025Q4) 1. Prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold). 3.0 2.8 2. Compensation your firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits). 3.4 3.5 Last year's price change (2023Q4-2024Q4) 3. Prices your firm did receive (for its own goods and services sold) over the last year. 3.0 3.0 For U.S. consumers: 4. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next year. 3.0 3.0 5. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next 10 years (2024-2033). 3.0 3.0 The numbers represent medians of the individual forecasts (percent changes). For question 5, the firms reported a 10-year annual-average change. Summary of Returns November 2024 November vs. October Six Months from Now vs. November Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 10.3 17.6 58.2 23.1 -5.5 36.7 67.4 11.0 10.8 56.6 Conditions New Orders 14.2 26.5 51.0 17.6 8.9 40.1 72.7 13.2 6.5 66.2 Shipments 7.4 23.9 50.1 19.3 4.5 45.8 60.6 22.4 8.5 52.1 Unfilled Orders -1.5 23.2 55.8 16.4 6.8 26.1 34.4 54.1 5.6 28.8 Delivery Times 10.2 6.6 79.9 8.7 -2.1 11.1 14.9 72.8 4.8 10.1 Inventories 0.5 15.8 63.7 10.4 5.4 4.4 22.8 50.7 17.6 5.3 Prices Paid 29.7 26.6 67.0 0.0 26.6 47.3 63.7 31.5 0.0 63.7 Prices Received 17.9 15.4 76.4 1.1 14.3 40.0 48.5 48.5 0.0 48.5 Number of Emp. -2.2 17.1 67.4 8.5 8.6 27.3 34.2 59.5 0.0 34.2 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. -11.8 19.1 73.9 1.7 17.4 25.0 18.0 73.4 1.1 16.9 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 23.5 24.9 73.1 0.0 24.9 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through November 18, 2024. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: November 21, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. ET. October 2024 Note: Survey responses were collected from October 7 to October 14. Manufacturing activity in the region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose, with the latter two returning to positive territory this month. The employment index declined and suggested mostly steady employment conditions. Both price indexes edged down but continue to indicate overall increases in prices. Expectations for growth over the next six months were more widespread this month as most future indicators rose. Most Current Indicators Improve The diffusion index for current general activity rose from 1.7 to 10.3 in October, its second consecutive increase. More than 24 percent of the firms reported increases in general activity this month, while 14 percent reported decreases; 57 percent reported no change. The indexes for new orders and shipments, which had turned negative last month, nearly recovered their declines from September. The new orders index climbed 16 points to 14.2, and the shipments index rose 22 points to 7.4. The firms reported mostly steady employment as the employment index declined from 10.7 to -2.2. Most firms (76 percent) reported no change in employment levels, while the share reporting decreases (13 percent) narrowly exceeded the share reporting increases (11 percent). The average workweek index inched up from -13.6 to -11.8. Firms Continue to Report Overall Price Increases Both price indexes declined but remained positive. The prices paid index declined from 34.0 to 29.7. Nearly 35 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 5 percent reported decreases; 60 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index decreased 7 points to 17.9. Almost 22 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods, 4 percent reported decreases, and 72 percent reported no change. Firms Anticipate Higher Capital Expenditures Next Year In this month's special question, manufacturers were asked about their plans for different categories of capital expenditures next year (see Special Question). Almost 52 percent of the firms expect to increase total capital spending, compared with 21 percent that expect to decrease total spending; 27 percent expect total spending to stay the same. When this question was asked last year, the share of firms expecting to decrease spending slightly exceeded the share of firms expecting to increase spending (30 percent versus 24 percent). On balance, the firms expect higher capital expenditures next year for computer and related hardware, software, noncomputer equipment, and energy-saving investments, and lower expenditures on structure and other investments. Firms Expect Growth over Next Six Months The diffusion index for future general activity rose from 15.8 to 36.7 in October. Over 47 percent of the firms expect increases in activity over the next six months (up from 39 percent last month), while 11 percent expect decreases (down from 23 percent); 34 percent expect steady conditions (up from 24 percent). The future new orders and shipments indexes rose to 40.1 points and 45.8 points, respectively, their highest readings since the spring. The firms continue to expect an overall increase in employment over the next six months, and the future employment index rose from 19.1 to 27.3, its highest reading since May 2022. Both future price indexes remained elevated, and none of the firms expect decreases in either. The future capital expenditures index remained elevated but ticked down 2 points to 23.5. Summary Responses to the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest an overall increase in regional manufacturing activity this month. The indicators for current activity, new orders, and shipments were positive, and all rose from last month. On balance, the firms indicated mostly steady employment and continued to report increases in prices. The survey's future indicators suggest more widespread expectations among the firms for growth over the next six months. Special Question (October 2024) Comparing 2025 with 2024, do you expect capital expenditures to be higher, the same, or lower for each of the following categories? Higher Same Lower Diffusion --------(% of reporters)------- Index Software 36.4 51.5 12.1 24.2 Noncomputer equipment 33.3 48.5 18.2 15.2 Energy-saving investments 19.4 66.7 9.7 9.7 Computer and related hardware 36.4 57.6 6.1 30.3 Structure 12.1 66.7 16.1 -4.0 Other 0.0 88.9 11.1 -11.1 Total capital spending 51.5 27.3 21.2 30.3 Summary of Returns October 2024 October vs. September Six Months from Now vs. October Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 1.7 24.3 56.7 14.0 10.3 15.8 47.4 33.9 10.6 36.7 Conditions New Orders -1.5 30.5 53.2 16.3 14.2 21.8 49.7 40.8 9.6 40.1 Shipments -14.3 27.1 53.1 19.8 7.4 26.8 53.8 36.5 8.0 45.8 Unfilled Orders -6.7 14.0 68.4 15.5 -1.5 19.0 29.4 67.0 3.3 26.1 Delivery Times -0.7 10.5 89.1 0.3 10.2 -2.7 12.3 81.5 1.2 11.1 Inventories 5.0 15.4 67.1 14.9 0.5 8.5 22.4 55.1 18.1 4.4 Prices Paid 34.0 34.7 60.0 5.0 29.7 49.8 47.3 52.7 0.0 47.3 Prices Received 24.6 21.7 71.9 3.8 17.9 34.3 40.0 60.0 0.0 40.0 Number of Emp. 10.7 10.7 76.2 12.9 -2.2 19.1 31.2 63.7 3.9 27.3 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. -13.6 0.0 86.2 11.8 -11.8 17.6 25.0 75.0 0.0 25.0 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 25.0 29.1 63.5 5.5 23.5 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through October 14, 2024. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: October 17, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. ET. September 2024 Note: Survey responses were collected from September 9 to September 16. Manufacturing activity in the region was mixed overall, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicator for current general activity turned positive, while the indexes for new orders and shipments declined and turned negative. The employment index rose and suggested increases in employment overall. Both price indexes moved higher and continue to indicate overall increases in prices. The firms continue to expect growth over the next six months, with expectations more widespread this month. Current Indicators Are Mixed The diffusion index for current general activity rose from -7.0 to 1.7 in September. Nearly 22 percent of the firms reported increases in general activity this month, while 20 percent reported decreases; 51 percent reported no change. The indexes for new orders and shipments declined and turned negative. The new orders index fell 16 points to -1.5. The shipments index declined 23 points to -14.3, its lowest reading since March 2023. The firms reported an increase in employment, on balance, after reporting an overall decline last month. The employment index rose from -5.7 to 10.7 this month, the index's second positive reading in the last three months following mostly negative readings since March 2023. More than 89 percent of the firms reported no change in employment levels this month, the highest share reporting steady employment since December 1978. Nearly 11 percent of the firms reported increases, while none reported decreases. The average workweek index declined from -2.3 to -13.6. Price Indexes Move Higher On balance, the firms continued to report overall increases in prices. The prices paid index moved up 10 points to 34.0, its highest reading since December 2022. Thirty-four percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while none reported decreases; 66 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index rose 11 points to 24.6, undoing its decrease from last month. Nearly 25 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods, none reported decreases, and 75 percent reported no change. Firms Report Higher Production, Little Change in Capacity Utilization In this month's special questions, the firms were asked to estimate their total production growth for the third quarter ending this month compared with the second quarter of 2024 (see Special Questions). A higher share of firms reported an increase in production (38 percent) compared with the share reporting a decrease (28 percent). Regarding firms' capacity utilization for the current quarter and one year ago, the median current capacity utilization rate reported among the responding firms was unchanged at 70 to 80 percent. More than 56 percent of the firms reported labor supply as at least a slight constraint to capacity utilization in the current quarter, and the share of firms reporting it as a moderate or significant constraint (31 percent) rose slightly from when this question was asked in June (27 percent). Half of the firms cited supply chains as a constraint in the current quarter. However, no firms reported supply chains as a significant constraint. Looking ahead over the next three months, most firms expect the impacts of various factors to stay the same. However, the share of firms expecting labor supply impacts to improve (13 percent) was higher than when this question was asked in June (6 percent). The share of firms expecting financial capital impacts to improve (16 percent) also rose from June (6 percent). Most Future Indicators Rise The diffusion index for future general activity was little changed at 15.8 in September. The share of firms expecting increases in activity over the next six months (39 percent) exceeded the share expecting decreases (23 percent); 24 percent expect no change. The future new orders index rose 11 points to 21.8, and the shipments index increased 17 points to 26.8. The firms continue to expect an overall increase in employment over the next six months, and the future employment index rose from a reading of 7.4 to 19.1. The future prices paid index rose 15 points to 49.8, and the future prices received index increased 22 points to 34.3. The future capital expenditures index moved up for the second consecutive month, to 25.0, its highest reading since March 2022. Summary Responses to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest mixed regional manufacturing activity this month. The indicator for current activity rose to positive territory, while the new orders and shipments indexes declined and turned negative. On balance, the firms indicated an increase in employment and continued to report increases in prices. The survey's broad indicators for future activity suggest more widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Special Questions (September 2024) 1. How will your firm's total production for the third quarter of 2024 compare with that of the second quarter of 2024? % of firms An increase of: 10% or more 9.4 5-10% 12.5 0-5% 15.6 Subtotal 37.5 No change 34.4 A decline of: 0-5% 6.3 5-10% 9.4 10% or more 12.5 Subtotal 28.1 2. Which of the following best characterizes your plant's percentage capacity utilization currently (2024:Q3) and one year ago (2023:Q3)? 2024:Q3 2023:Q3 Capacity Utilization Rate % of reporters % of reporters Less than 30% 3.1 0.0 30-40% 3.1 0.0 40-50% 0.0 3.1 50-60% 6.3 3.1 60-70% 25.0 18.8 70-80% 34.4 46.9 80-90% 21.9 18.8 90-100% 6.3 9.4 Median Utilization Rate 70-80 70-80 3. In the current quarter, to what degree have the following factors acted as constraints on capacity utilization? Not at all Slightly Moderately Significantly (%) (%) (%) (%) COVID-19 mitigation measures 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Energy markets 78.1 15.6 6.3 0.0 Financial capital 90.6 3.1 6.3 0.0 Labor supply 43.8 25.0 12.5 18.8 Supply chains 50.0 31.3 18.8 0.0 Other factors 66.7 9.5 4.8 19.0 4. Over the next three months, how do you expect the impacts of the following factors as constraints on capacity utilization to change? Worsen Stay the same Improve (%) (%) (%) COVID-19 mitigation measures 10.0 90.0 0.0 Energy markets 6.5 87.1 6.5 Financial capital 3.2 80.6 16.1 Labor supply 12.5 75.0 12.5 Supply chains 9.4 90.6 0.0 Other factors 0.0 86.4 13.6 Summary of Returns September 2024 September vs. August Six Months from Now vs. September Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business -7.0 21.9 50.5 20.2 1.7 15.4 38.8 24.4 23.1 15.8 Conditions New Orders 14.6 25.1 47.0 26.7 -1.5 10.4 41.2 36.3 19.4 21.8 Shipments 8.5 15.7 54.4 29.9 -14.3 9.8 43.7 38.1 16.9 26.8 Unfilled Orders 3.2 13.9 63.7 20.6 -6.7 -9.7 19.8 74.7 0.8 19.0 Delivery Times 14.1 2.8 91.1 3.4 -0.7 -4.4 8.1 79.2 10.9 -2.7 Inventories -4.8 12.7 76.8 7.7 5.0 -14.7 20.6 65.6 12.1 8.5 Prices Paid 24.0 34.0 65.9 0.0 34.0 35.2 53.9 41.4 4.1 49.8 Prices Received 13.7 24.6 74.8 0.0 24.6 12.5 43.7 46.0 9.3 34.3 Number of Emp. -5.7 10.7 89.3 0.0 10.7 7.4 24.6 69.4 5.6 19.1 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. -2.3 0.0 85.1 13.6 -13.6 8.4 22.4 71.3 4.8 17.6 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 12.0 27.7 65.5 2.7 25.0 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through September 16, 2024. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: September 19, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. ET. August 2024 Note: Survey responses were collected from August 5 to August 12. Manufacturing activity in the region softened overall, according to the firms responding to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all declined, with the former turning negative. The employment index suggests declines in employment overall. Both price indexes indicate overall increases in prices and remain near their long-run averages. The firms continue to expect growth over the next six months, but expectations were less widespread this month. Most Current Indicators Decline The diffusion index for current general activity fell from 13.9 to -7.0, its first negative reading since January. Nearly 18 percent of the firms reported increases in general activity this month (down from 39 percent last month), while 25 percent reported decreases (unchanged); 53 percent reported no change (up from 29 percent). The indexes for new orders and shipments also declined but remained positive for the second consecutive month: The new orders index decreased 6 points to 14.6, and the shipments index fell 19 points to 8.5. The firms reported a decline in employment, on balance, after reporting an overall increase last month. The employment index returned to negative territory, falling to -5.7. Nearly three-quarters of the firms reported no change in employment levels this month, while the share of firms reporting decreases (16 percent) exceeded the share reporting increases (10 percent). The average workweek index ticked down to -2.3. Price Indexes Remain Near Long-Run Averages On balance, the firms continued to report overall increases in prices. The prices paid index moved up 4 points to 24.0. More than 31 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 7 percent reported decreases; 58 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index fell 10 points to 13.7, undoing its increase from last month. Over 18 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods, 5 percent reported decreases, and 73 percent reported no change. Firms Expect Own Price Increases to Lag Inflation Slightly In this month's special questions, the firms were asked to forecast the changes in prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters (see Special Questions). Regarding their own prices over the next year, the firms' median forecast was for an expected increase of 2.8 percent, down slightly from 3.0 percent when this question was last asked in May. The firms reported a median increase of 3.0 percent in their own prices over the past year, up slightly from 2.7 percent last quarter. The firms expect their employee compensation costs (wages plus benefits on a per employee basis) to rise 3.5 percent over the next four quarters, unchanged from May. The firms' median forecast for the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year was also unchanged, at 3.0 percent. Most Future Indicators Decline The diffusion index for future general activity declined from 38.7 to 15.4 in August, mostly offsetting its increase from last month. The share of firms expecting increases in activity over the next six months (37 percent) exceeded the share expecting decreases (21 percent); 37 percent expect no change. The future new orders and shipments indexes both fell 21 points, to 10.4 and 9.8, respectively. Expectations for overall increases in employment over the next six months were positive but less widespread, as the future employment index fell from 23.8 to 7.4. The future capital expenditures index moved up 5 points to 12.0. Summary Responses to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest softer regional manufacturing activity this month. The indicator for current activity fell into negative territory, and the new orders and shipments indexes also declined but remained positive. On balance, the firms indicated a decline in employment, and the price indexes were near their long-run averages. The survey's broad indicators for future activity suggest less widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Special Questions (August 2024) Please list the annual percent change with respect to the following: Current Previous (May 2024) For your firm: Forecast for next year (2024Q3-2025Q3) 1. Prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold). 2.8 3.0 2. Compensation your firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits). 3.5 3.5 Last year's price change (2023Q3-2024Q3) 3. Prices your firm did receive (for its own goods and services sold) over the last year. 3.0 2.7 For U.S. consumers: 4. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next year. 3.0 3.0 5. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next 10 years (2024-2033). 3.0 3.0 The numbers represent medians of the individual forecasts (percent changes). For question 5, the firms reported a 10-year annual-average change. Summary of Returns August 2024 August vs. July Six Months from Now vs. August Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 13.9 17.9 53.3 24.9 -7.0 38.7 36.8 36.9 21.4 15.4 Conditions New Orders 20.7 33.0 48.6 18.4 14.6 31.3 38.9 31.5 28.6 10.4 Shipments 27.8 21.9 64.7 13.4 8.5 31.0 32.1 45.7 22.2 9.8 Unfilled Orders 9.1 17.7 67.8 14.5 3.2 7.0 11.6 59.2 21.3 -9.7 Delivery Times 8.5 22.9 68.3 8.8 14.1 3.9 6.2 80.9 10.5 -4.4 Inventories -9.4 15.0 63.0 19.8 -4.8 0.4 14.8 49.1 29.5 -14.7 Prices Paid 19.8 31.3 57.6 7.3 24.0 60.2 43.4 46.2 8.1 35.2 Prices Received 24.2 18.1 73.4 4.5 13.7 43.7 26.1 59.6 13.6 12.5 Number of Emp. 15.2 10.2 74.0 15.8 -5.7 23.8 19.1 66.0 11.7 7.4 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. -1.6 11.3 75.2 13.5 -2.3 16.6 17.2 70.8 8.8 8.4 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 7.4 20.3 70.4 8.3 12.0 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through August 12, 2024. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: August 15, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. ET. July 2024 Note: Survey responses were collected from July 8 to July 15. Manufacturing activity in the region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicator for general activity rose, and the indexes for shipments and new orders turned positive. The employment index also turned positive, suggesting an overall increase in employment levels. Both price indexes continued to indicate overall price increases. Most future activity indicators rose, suggesting more widespread expectations for overall growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Improve The diffusion index for current general activity rose 13 points to 13.9 in July. Nearly 39 percent of the firms reported increases in general activity this month, while 25 percent reported decreases; 29 percent reported no change. The indexes for new orders and shipments both turned positive following two consecutive negative readings. The current new orders index rose 23 points to 20.7 in July, its highest reading since March 2022. The current shipments index jumped 35 points to 27.8, its highest reading since May 2022. On balance, the firms reported an increase in employment for the first time since October. The employment index rose 18 points to 15.2 in July, its highest reading since October 2022. Twenty-eight percent of the firms reported an increase in employment, while 13 percent reported a decrease; 58 percent reported no change. The average workweek index fell 7 points to -1.6. Firms Report Overall Price Increases On balance, the firms reported increases in prices overall in July; however, most firms continued to report no change in prices. The prices paid index edged down 3 points to 19.8. Almost 26 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 6 percent reported decreases; 65 percent reported no change. The current prices received index rose 11 points to 24.2, its highest reading since January 2023. One-quarter of the firms reported increases in the prices of their own goods (up from 14 percent last month), while 1 percent reported decreases (up from 0 percent); 68 percent reported no change (down from 86 percent). Firms' Expected Wage Increases Hold Steady In this month's special questions, the firms were asked about changes in wages and compensation over the past three months as well as their updated expectations for changes in various input and labor costs for the current year (see Special Questions). Twenty-nine percent of the firms indicated wages and compensation costs had increased over the past three months, 65 percent reported no change, and 7 percent reported decreases. Most firms (81 percent) reported not needing to adjust their 2024 budgets for wages and compensation since the beginning of the year; however, 16 percent of the respondents are planning to increase wages and compensation by more than originally planned. The firms still expect cost increases across all categories of expenses in 2024, and the median expected increases were in line with or slightly higher than expectations for most categories when this question was last asked in April. The responses indicate a median expected increase of 3 to 4 percent for wages and of 4 to 5 percent for total compensation (wages plus benefits), both unchanged from April. Most Future Indicators Rise The diffusion index for future general activity jumped from a reading of 13.8 in June to 38.7 in July, its highest reading since July 2021. Forty-nine percent of the firms expect an increase in activity over the next six months, exceeding the 10 percent that expect a decrease; 31 percent expect no change. The future new orders index rose 15 points to 31.3, and the future shipments index rose 31 points to 31.0. The firms continue to expect an overall increase in employment over the next six months, and the future employment index increased from a reading of 19.0 to 23.8. The future prices paid index edged up from 56.3 to 60.2, while the future prices received index fell from 58.8 to 43.7. The index for future capital expenditures decreased 5 points to 7.4, its lowest reading since December. Summary Responses to the July Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity expanded overall this month. The indicator for current activity rose, and the indexes for shipments and new orders turned positive. On balance, the firms indicated an increase in employment, and the current price indexes suggest overall increases in prices. Most of the survey's broad indicators for future activity rose, suggesting more widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Special Questions (July 2024) 1. How have wages and compensation changed at your firm over the past three months? Percent (%) Increased 29.0 No change 64.5 Decreased 6.5 2. Since the beginning of the year, have you adjusted your budget for wages and compensation for 2024?* Yes, and we are planning to increase wages and compensation by more than originally planned. 16.1 Yes, and we are planning to increase wages and compensation sooner than originally planned. 0.0 No, we have not needed to make adjustments. 80.6 Other 3.2 *Percentages do not sum to 100 because more than one option could be selected. 3. What percentage change in costs do you now expect for the following categories over all of 2024?** Energy Other Inter- Wages Health Non- Wages + (%) Raw mediate (%) Benefits health Health Materials goods (%) Benefits Benefits + (%) (%) (%) Nonhealth Benefits (%) Decline of more than 1% 3.4 3.4 0.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.7 No change 37.9 10.3 24.0 10.3 24.1 34.5 14.8 Increase of 1-2% 10.3 20.7 8.0 6.9 6.9 13.8 0.0 Increase of 2-3% 6.9 27.6 24.0 13.8 17.2 20.7 11.1 Increase of 3-4% 13.8 13.8 28.0 34.5 6.9 10.3 11.1 Increase of 4-5% 10.3 6.9 4.0 24.1 13.8 3.4 33.3 Increase of 5-7.5% 13.8 10.3 12.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 14.8 Increase of 7.5-10% 3.4 3.4 0.0 0.0 10.3 6.9 0.0 Increase of 10-12.5% 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4 Increase of more than 12.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0 3.7 ------------------------------------ ------- ------------------------- ------ Median Exp. Change 1-3% 2-3% 2-3% 3-4% 4-5% 1-2% 4-5% Median Exp. Change (April 2024) 2-3% 2-3% 2-3% 3-4% 3-4% 2-3% 4-5% **The firms responded to more detailed changes than shown in the provided ranges. Summary of Returns July 2024 July vs. June Six Months from Now vs. July Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 1.3 38.9 29.2 25.0 13.9 13.8 49.0 31.3 10.3 38.7 Conditions New Orders -2.2 42.2 33.4 21.5 20.7 16.2 43.7 34.0 12.4 31.3 Shipments -7.2 40.5 44.7 12.7 27.8 -0.1 43.3 34.0 12.3 31.0 Unfilled Orders 8.9 29.3 49.5 20.2 9.1 12.2 22.2 54.5 15.2 7.0 Delivery Times -9.4 16.1 73.6 7.6 8.5 0.4 18.6 57.8 14.6 3.9 Inventories -6.4 18.9 48.0 28.3 -9.4 -24.2 27.3 35.6 26.9 0.4 Prices Paid 22.5 25.9 64.7 6.1 19.8 56.3 61.7 30.5 1.5 60.2 Prices Received 13.7 25.0 68.3 0.9 24.2 58.8 52.2 32.7 8.5 43.7 Number of Emp. -2.5 28.0 57.8 12.8 15.2 19.0 32.3 55.2 8.5 23.8 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 4.8 8.4 77.9 10.0 -1.6 2.2 20.1 63.6 3.5 16.6 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 12.1 19.6 64.7 12.2 7.4 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through July 15, 2024. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: July 18, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. ET. June 2024 Note: Survey responses were collected from June 10 to June 17. Manufacturing activity in the region was mostly steady overall, according to the firms responding to the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicator for general activity edged lower but remained positive, while the indexes for shipments and new orders remained negative. The employment index increased but remained negative, continuing to suggest an overall decline in employment levels. Both price indexes continued to indicate overall price increases. Most future activity indicators remained positive but suggest less widespread expectations for overall growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Are Mixed The diffusion index for current general activity edged down 3 points to 1.3 in June, its lowest reading since January. Twenty-four percent of the firms reported increases in general activity this month, while 23 percent reported decreases; 50 percent reported no change. The index for new orders recorded a second consecutive negative reading but moved up from -7.9 in May to -2.2 in June. The current shipments index fell 6 points to -7.2, its lowest reading since December. On balance, the firms continued to report a decline in employment. The employment index rose 5 points to -2.5 in June, its eighth consecutive negative reading. Most firms (74 percent) continued to report no change in employment, while the share of firms reporting decreases (14 percent) slightly exceeded the share reporting increases (11 percent). The average workweek index rose from -8.3 to 4.8. Firms Report Overall Price Increases The firms reported increases in prices overall in June. The prices paid index rose 4 points to 22.5. Almost 26 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices (up from 19 percent last month), while 3 percent reported decreases (up from 0 percent); 71 percent reported no change (down from 78 percent). The current prices received index increased 7 points to 13.7. Nearly 14 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices of their own goods, no firm reported decreases, and 86 percent reported no change. Firms Report Higher Production, Little Change in Capacity Utilization In this month's special questions, the firms were asked to estimate their total production growth for the second quarter ending this month compared with the first quarter of 2024 (see Special Questions). A higher share of firms reported an increase in production (50 percent) compared with the share reporting a decrease (25 percent). Regarding firms' capacity utilization for the current quarter and one year ago, the median current capacity utilization rate reported among the responding firms was unchanged at 70 to 80 percent. Most firms reported labor supply as at least a slight constraint to capacity utilization in the current quarter, and the share of firms reporting it as a moderate or significant constraint (27 percent) fell from when this question was asked in March (38 percent). Over 15 percent of the firms cited that energy markets were a constraint in the current quarter at least slightly, up from 3 percent in the previous quarter. Looking ahead over the next three months, most firms expect the impacts of various factors to stay the same. However, the share of firms expecting labor supply impacts to improve (6 percent) was lower than when this question was asked in March (12 percent). Most Future Indicators Remain Positive The diffusion index for future general activity fell from a reading of 32.4 in May to 13.8 in June, its lowest reading since February. More than 32 percent of the firms expect an increase in activity over the next six months, exceeding the 19 percent that expect a decrease; 47 percent expect no change. The future new orders index fell 24 points to 16.2, and the future shipments index dropped 46 points to -0.1. The firms continue to expect an overall increase in employment over the next six months, and the future employment index edged down from a reading of 21.7 to 19.0. The future prices paid index rose from 35.4 to 56.3, and the future prices received index increased from 31.4 to 58.8. The index for future capital expenditures decreased 8 points to 12.1, its lowest reading since January. Summary Responses to the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest mostly steady regional manufacturing activity overall this month. The indicator for current activity ticked down but remained positive. The shipments index fell further into negative territory, and the new orders index remained negative. On balance, the firms continued to indicate a decline in employment, and the current price indexes suggest overall increases in prices. Most of the survey's broad indicators for future activity fell but remained positive, suggesting less widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Special Questions (June 2024) 1. How will your firm's total production for the second quarter of 2024 compare with that of the first quarter of 2024? % of firms An increase of: 10% or more 9.4 5-10% 15.6 0-5% 25.0 Subtotal 50.0 No change 25.0 A decline of: 0-5% 6.3 5-10% 6.3 10% or more 12.5 Subtotal 25.0 2. Which of the following best characterizes your plant's percentage capacity utilization currently (2024:Q2) and one year ago (2023:Q2)? 2024:Q2 2023:Q2 Capacity Utilization Rate of reporters % of reporters Less than 30% 0.0 3.2 30-40% 6.7 3.2 40-50% 3.3 0.0 50-60% 13.3 3.2 60-70% 16.7 25.8 70-80% 30.0 25.8 80-90% 16.7 22.6 90-100% 13.3 16.1 Median Utilization Rate 70-80 70-80 3. In the current quarter, to what degree have the following factors acted as constraints on capacity utilization? Not at all Slightly Moderately Significantly (%) (%) (%) (%) COVID-19 mitigation measures 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Energy markets 84.8 9.1 6.1 0.0 Financial capital 87.9 6.1 3.0 3.0 Labor supply 45.5 27.3 15.2 12.1 Supply chains 48.5 36.4 12.1 3.0 Other factors 79.2 0.0 16.7 4.2 4. Over the next three months, how do you expect the impacts of the following factors as constraints on capacity utilization to change? Worsen Stay the same Improve (%) (%) (%) COVID-19 mitigation measures 0.0 97.0 3.0 Energy markets 6.1 90.9 3.0 Financial capital 3.0 90.9 6.1 Labor supply 12.1 81.8 6.1 Supply chains 6.1 75.8 18.2 Other factors 4.2 95.8 0.0 Summary of Returns June 2024 June vs. May Six Months from Now vs. June Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 4.5 24.0 50.2 22.7 1.3 32.4 32.4 46.8 18.5 13.8 Conditions New Orders -7.9 22.9 52.1 25.0 -2.2 39.7 35.3 45.7 19.0 16.2 Shipments -1.2 15.6 60.2 22.8 -7.2 46.2 30.5 38.9 30.6 -0.1 Unfilled Orders -11.5 21.3 66.3 12.4 8.9 26.7 21.5 69.2 9.3 12.2 Delivery Times -0.8 6.3 77.9 15.7 -9.4 16.5 11.8 76.9 11.4 0.4 Inventories -10.1 13.9 64.8 20.3 -6.4 9.4 10.8 54.2 35.0 -24.2 Prices Paid 18.7 25.7 71.1 3.2 22.5 35.4 63.1 30.0 6.9 56.3 Prices Received 6.6 13.7 86.3 0.0 13.7 31.4 61.5 35.9 2.7 58.8 Number of Emp. -7.9 11.4 74.3 13.9 -2.5 21.7 31.0 57.0 12.0 19.0 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. -8.3 14.1 76.6 9.3 4.8 16.6 17.7 66.8 15.5 2.2 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 20.1 25.1 59.3 13.0 12.1 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through June 17, 2024. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: June 20, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. ET. May 2024 Note: Survey responses were collected from May 6 to May 13. Manufacturing activity in the region weakened overall, according to the firms responding to the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all declined, with the latter two turning negative. The employment index suggests declines in employment overall. Both price indexes indicate overall increases in prices but remain below their long-run averages. The firms continue to expect growth over the next six months. Most Current Indicators Decline The diffusion index for current general activity remained positive but declined 11 points to 4.5 in May, mostly undoing its increase from last month. More than 29 percent of the firms reported increases in general activity this month (down from 38 percent last month), while 25 percent reported decreases (up from 22 percent); 46 percent reported no change (up from 40 percent). The index for new orders declined from 12.2 to -7.9, its first negative reading since February, and the shipments index fell from 19.1 to -1.2, its first negative reading since January. Although employment indicators rose, the firms continued to report a decline in employment, on balance. The employment index moved up 3 points to -7.9. Two-thirds of the firms reported no change in employment levels this month, while the share of firms reporting decreases (20 percent) exceeded the share reporting increases (12 percent). The average workweek index rose 10 points but remained negative at -8.3. Price Indexes Remain Below Long-Run Averages On balance, the firms continued to report overall increases in prices. After rising 19 points last month, the prices paid index declined 4 points to 18.7 in May. Almost 19 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while none reported decreases; 78 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index ticked up 1 point to 6.6. Almost 13 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods, 6 percent reported decreases, and 78 percent reported no change. Firms Expect Own Price Increases to Match Inflation In this month's special questions, the firms were asked to forecast the changes in prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters (see Special Questions). Regarding their own prices over the next year, the firms' median forecast was for an expected increase of 3.0 percent, unchanged from when this question was last asked in February. The firms reported a median increase of 2.7 percent in their own prices over the past year, down slightly from 3.0 percent last quarter. The firms expect their employee compensation costs (wages plus benefits on a per employee basis) to rise 3.5 percent over the next four quarters, down from 4.0 percent. The firms' median forecast for the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year was unchanged at 3.0 percent. Firms Remain Optimistic Overall The diffusion index for future general activity edged down from 34.3 in April to 32.4 in May. The share of firms expecting increases in activity over the next six months (45 percent) exceeded the share expecting decreases (12 percent); 43 percent expect no change. The future new orders index decreased 3 points to 39.7, while the future shipments index climbed 17 points to 46.2. Expectations for overall increases in employment over the next six months were more widespread, as the future employment index rose 9 points to 21.7. The future capital expenditures index was essentially unchanged at 20.1. Summary Responses to the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest softer regional manufacturing activity this month. The indicator for current activity remained positive but declined, and the new orders and shipments indexes turned negative. On balance, the firms indicated a decline in employment, and price indexes were below their long-run averages. The survey's broad indicators for future activity continued to suggest widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Special Questions (May 2024) Please list the annual percent change with respect to the following: Current Previous (Feb. 2024) For your firm: Forecast for next year (2024Q2-2025Q2) 1. Prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold). 3.0 3.0 2. Compensation your firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits). 3.5 4.0 Last year's price change (2023Q2-2024Q2) 3. Prices your firm did receive (for its own goods and services sold) over the last year. 2.7 3.0 For U.S. consumers: 4. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next year. 3.0 3.0 5. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next 10 years (2024-2033). 3.0 3.0 The numbers represent medians of the individual forecasts (percent changes). For question 5, the firms reported a 10-year annual-average change. Summary of Returns May 2024 May vs. April Six Months from Now vs. May Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 15.5 29.2 46.1 24.7 4.5 34.3 44.7 43.0 12.3 32.4 Conditions New Orders 12.2 24.4 43.1 32.3 -7.9 42.8 55.2 27.6 15.4 39.7 Shipments 19.1 27.9 43.0 29.1 -1.2 29.3 54.9 36.5 8.6 46.2 Unfilled Orders 0.8 9.7 65.8 21.2 -11.5 13.0 28.4 68.6 1.7 26.7 Delivery Times -9.4 9.1 80.6 9.9 -0.8 0.7 23.7 69.1 7.2 16.5 Inventories -8.9 13.7 57.3 23.7 -10.1 2.0 24.3 54.0 14.8 9.4 Prices Paid 23.0 18.7 77.6 0.0 18.7 54.5 40.1 51.0 4.7 35.4 Prices Received 5.5 12.6 78.4 6.0 6.6 34.4 35.2 59.1 3.8 31.4 Number of Emp. -10.7 11.8 66.5 19.7 -7.9 12.8 34.4 50.8 12.7 21.7 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. -18.7 8.1 75.4 16.5 -8.3 17.3 22.9 67.7 6.4 16.6 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 20.0 26.5 61.4 6.4 20.1 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through May 13, 2024. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: May 16, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. ET. April 2024 Note: Survey responses were collected from April 8 to April 15. Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand this month, according to the firms responding to the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose. However, the employment index remained negative. Both price indexes continue to suggest overall price increases. Most future activity indicators declined but continue to suggest that firms expect growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Improve This Month The diffusion index for current general activity rose 12 points to 15.5 in April, its third consecutive positive reading and highest reading since April 2022. Almost 38 percent of the firms reported increases in general activity this month, while 22 percent reported decreases; 40 percent reported no change. The index for new orders increased 7 points in April, its second consecutive positive reading. The current shipments index rose 8 points to 19.1 this month. The firms continued to report an overall decline in employment. The employment index edged down 1 point to -10.7 in April, its 12th negative reading in the past 14 months. Most firms (77 percent) continued to report no change in employment, while the share of firms reporting decreases (16 percent) exceeded the share reporting increases (6 percent). The average workweek index fell further, from -0.2 to -18.7. Firms Continue to Report Overall Price Increases The prices paid index jumped from 3.7 in March to 23.0 in April, its highest reading since December 2023 and near, but below, its long-run average. Almost 26 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices (up from 14 percent last month), while 3 percent reported decreases (down from 10 percent); 70 percent reported no change (down from 75 percent). The current prices received index ticked up 1 point to 5.5. Almost 12 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices of their own goods, 6 percent reported decreases, and 82 percent reported no change. Firms Continue to Expect Increases for Wages In this month's special questions, the firms were asked about changes in wages and compensation over the past three months, as well as their updated expectations for changes in various input and labor costs for the current year (see Special Questions). More than 31 percent of the firms indicated wages and compensation costs had increased over the past three months, 69 percent reported no change, and none reported decreases. Most firms (78 percent) reported not needing to adjust their 2024 budgets for wages and compensation since the beginning of the year; however, equal shares of the respondents (9 percent) are planning to increase wages and compensation by more than originally planned, and sooner than originally planned. The firms still expect cost increases across all categories of expenses in 2024, and the median expected increases were in line with or slightly higher than expectations for most categories when this question was last asked in July. The responses indicate a median expected increase of 3 to 4 percent for wages and of 4 to 5 percent for total compensation (wages plus benefits), both unchanged from July. Future Indicators Remain Positive The diffusion index for future general activity declined from 38.6 in March to 34.3 in April. Forty-four percent of the firms expect an increase in activity over the next six months, exceeding the 10 percent that expect a decrease; 39 percent expect no change. The future new orders index decreased 7 points to 42.8, and the future shipments index fell 14 points to 29.3. The firms expect an increase in employment over the next six months: The future employment index increased from a reading of 5.8 in March to 12.8 this month. The future prices paid index moved up to 54.5, while the future prices received index fell 3 points to 34.4. The index for future capital expenditures fell 4 points to 20.0. Summary Responses to the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey continued to suggest an overall increase in regional manufacturing activity this month. The indicators for current activity, new orders, and shipments rose. The firms continued to indicate an overall decline in employment, and the current price indexes suggest overall price increases. The survey's broad indicators for future activity fell but remained positive, suggesting continued expectations for growth over the next six months. Special Questions (April 2024) 1. How have wages and compensation changed at your firm over the past three months? Percent (%) Increased 31.3 No change 68.7 Decreased 0.0 2. Since the beginning of the year, have you adjusted your budget for wages and compensation for 2024?* Yes, and we are planning to increase wages and compensation by more than originally planned. 9.4 Yes, and we are planning to increase wages and compensation sooner than originally planned. 9.4 No, we have not needed to make adjustments. 78.1 Other 6.3 *Percentages do not sum to 100 because more than one option could be selected. 3. What percentage change in costs do you now expect for the following categories over all of 2024?** Energy Other Inter- Wages Health Non- Wages + (%) Raw mediate (%) Benefits health Health Materials goods (%) Benefits Benefits + (%) (%) (%) Nonhealth Benefits (%) Decline of more than 1% 6.5 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 No change 16.1 16.7 30.0 12.9 22.6 27.6 6.9 Increase of 1-2% 12.9 3.3 10.0 0.0 6.5 13.8 3.4 Increase of 2-3% 25.8 30.0 30.0 12.9 16.1 24.1 13.8 Increase of 3-4% 12.9 13.3 3.3 58.1 3.2 13.8 17.2 Increase of 4-5% 16.1 16.7 20.0 16.1 19.4 17.2 31.0 Increase of 5-7.5% 6.5 3.3 3.3 0.0 12.9 0.0 13.8 Increase of 7.5-10% 0.0 6.7 0.0 0.0 6.5 3.4 6.9 Increase of 10-12.5% 3.2 3.3 3.3 0.0 9.7 0.0 6.9 Increase of more than 12.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ------------------------------------ ------- ------------------------- ------ Median Exp. Change 2-3% 2-3% 2-3% 3-4% 3-4% 2-3% 4-5% Median Exp. Change (July 2023) 1-3% 2-3% 2-3% 3-4% 4-5% 1-2% 4-5% **The firms responded to more detailed changes than shown in the provided ranges. Summary of Returns April 2024 April vs. March Six Months from Now vs. April Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 3.2 37.8 40.0 22.3 15.5 38.6 44.0 38.7 9.8 34.3 Conditions New Orders 5.4 32.5 47.2 20.3 12.2 49.9 53.4 31.9 10.6 42.8 Shipments 11.4 36.5 46.1 17.4 19.1 43.6 38.6 45.2 9.3 29.3 Unfilled Orders 1.0 13.6 69.8 12.8 0.8 11.1 22.9 63.0 9.9 13.0 Delivery Times -16.7 10.0 69.9 19.4 -9.4 7.9 10.2 78.0 9.5 0.7 Inventories 4.4 9.7 68.8 18.6 -8.9 12.2 19.9 57.4 17.9 2.0 Prices Paid 3.7 25.9 70.2 2.8 23.0 38.0 57.3 36.0 2.8 54.5 Prices Received 4.6 11.6 82.2 6.2 5.5 37.1 37.2 58.1 2.8 34.4 Number of Emp. -9.6 5.7 77.4 16.4 -10.7 5.8 23.5 61.6 10.7 12.8 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. -0.2 3.4 74.0 22.1 -18.7 -0.6 22.9 67.8 5.6 17.3 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 23.6 26.7 65.7 6.7 20.0 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through April 15, 2024. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: April 18, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. ET. March 2024 Note: Survey responses were collected from March 11 to March 18. Manufacturing activity in the region continued to expand overall, according to the firms responding to the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicator for general activity edged lower but remained positive, while the index for shipments ticked up and the index for new orders turned positive. The employment index remained negative, continuing to suggest a decline in overall employment levels. Both price indexes fell and remained below their long-run averages. Future activity indicators rose, suggesting more widespread expectations for overall growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Remain Below Long-Run Averages The diffusion index for current general activity edged down 2 points to 3.2 in March, its second consecutive positive reading. This is only the index's fifth positive reading since May 2022. Nearly 24 percent of the firms reported increases in general activity this month, while 21 percent reported decreases; 52 percent reported no change. The index for new orders turned positive for the first time since October, rising from -5.2 in February to 5.4 in March. The current shipments index ticked up 1 point to 11.4 in March, its highest reading since August 2022. On balance, the firms continued to report a decline in employment. The employment index rose 1 point to -9.6 in March, its 11th negative reading in the past 13 months. Most firms (80 percent) continued to report no change in employment, while the share of firms reporting decreases (14 percent) exceeded the share reporting increases (4 percent). The average workweek index fell from 1.4 to -0.2. Price Indexes Move Lower Most firms reported no change in prices, and both price indexes remained below their long-run averages; however, on balance, the firms reported overall increases in prices. The prices paid index dropped 13 points to 3.7 in March, its lowest reading since May 2020. Almost 14 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices (down from 21 percent last month), while 10 percent reported decreases (up from 4 percent); 75 percent reported no change (up from 70 percent). The current prices received index declined 2 points to 4.6. Nearly 12 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices of their own goods, 7 percent reported decreases, and 81 percent reported no change. Firms Report Higher Production, Little Change in Capacity Utilization In this month's special questions, the firms were asked to estimate their total production growth for the first quarter ending this month compared with the fourth quarter of 2023 (see Special Questions). A higher share of firms reported an increase in production (41 percent) compared with the share reporting a decrease (27 percent). Regarding firms' capacity utilization for the current quarter and one year ago, the median current capacity utilization rate reported among the responding firms was unchanged at 70 to 80 percent. Most firms reported labor supply as at least a slight constraint to capacity utilization in the current quarter, and the share of firms reporting it as a moderate or significant constraint (38 percent) edged up from when this question was asked in December (35 percent). Just over half of the firms reported supply chains were not at all a constraint in the current quarter, a similar share to the previous quarter. Looking ahead over the next three months, most firms expect the impacts of various factors to stay the same. However, the share of firms expecting labor supply impacts to improve (12 percent) was lower than when this question was asked in December (20 percent). Future Indicators Rise The diffusion index for future general activity jumped from a reading of 7.2 in February to 38.6 in March, its highest reading since July 2021. Half of the firms expect an increase in activity over the next six months, exceeding the 11 percent that expect a decrease; 34 percent expect no change. The future new orders index climbed 26 points to 49.9, and the future shipments index rose 17 points to 43.6. On balance, the firms expect an increase in employment over the next six months, and the future employment index increased from a reading of 4.9 to 5.8. The future prices paid index ticked down to 38.0, while the future prices received index rose 7 points to 37.1. The index for future capital expenditures rose 11 points to 23.6, its highest reading since March 2022. Summary Responses to the March Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest an overall increase in regional manufacturing activity this month. The indicator for current activity ticked down but remained positive. The shipments index edged higher, and the new orders index turned positive. On balance, the firms continued to indicate a decline in employment, and the current price indexes suggest overall but less widespread increases in prices. The survey's broad indicators for future activity strengthened, suggesting more widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Special Questions (March 2024) 1. How will your firm's total production for the first quarter of 2024 compare with that of the fourth quarter of 2023? % of firms An increase of: 10% or more 2.9 5-10% 20.6 0-5% 17.6 Subtotal 41.1 No change 32.4 A decline of: 0-5% 5.9 5-10% 11.8 10% or more 8.8 Subtotal 26.5 2. Which of the following best characterizes your plant's percentage capacity utilization currently (2024:Q1) and one year ago (2023:Q1)? 2024:Q1 2023:Q1 Capacity Utilization Rate of reporters % of reporters Less than 30% 0.0 3.0 30-40% 6.1 0.0 40-50% 0.0 6.1 50-60% 6.1 9.1 60-70% 21.2 24.2 70-80% 33.3 24.2 80-90% 27.3 12.1 90-100% 6.1 21.2 Median Utilization Rate 70-80 70-80 3. In the current quarter, to what degree have the following factors acted as constraints on capacity utilization? Not at all Slightly Moderately Significantly (%) (%) (%) (%) COVID-19 mitigation measures 94.1 5.9 0.0 0.0 Energy markets 97.1 2.9 0.0 0.0 Financial capital 88.2 5.9 5.9 0.0 Labor supply 41.2 20.6 20.6 17.6 Supply chains 51.5 33.3 15.2 0.0 Other factors 73.9 4.3 4.3 17.4 4. Over the next three months, how do you expect the impacts of the following factors as constraints on capacity utilization to change? Worsen Stay the same Improve (%) (%) (%) COVID-19 mitigation measures 0.0 87.9 12.1 Energy markets 3.0 97.0 0.0 Financial capital 5.9 88.2 5.9 Labor supply 8.8 79.4 11.8 Supply chains 0.0 91.2 8.8 Other factors 0.0 87.5 12.5 Summary of Returns March 2024 March vs. February Six Months from Now vs. March Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business 5.2 23.7 51.5 20.5 3.2 7.2 50.0 33.6 11.3 38.6 Conditions New Orders -5.2 31.0 40.9 25.7 5.4 24.2 59.6 30.4 9.8 49.9 Shipments 10.7 28.7 47.7 17.3 11.4 26.7 57.4 28.8 13.8 43.6 Unfilled Orders -11.7 18.7 63.6 17.7 1.0 0.3 23.9 63.3 12.8 11.1 Delivery Times -21.1 3.1 74.5 19.9 -16.7 -9.4 19.0 69.1 11.2 7.9 Inventories -2.8 6.6 90.8 2.3 4.4 -23.1 22.2 62.8 10.0 12.2 Prices Paid 16.6 13.6 75.2 9.8 3.7 41.4 41.8 54.4 3.8 38.0 Prices Received 6.2 11.8 81.0 7.2 4.6 29.9 37.8 58.5 0.8 37.1 Number of Emp. -10.3 3.8 79.7 13.5 -9.6 4.9 15.3 75.3 9.4 5.8 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. 1.4 6.9 84.2 7.1 -0.2 9.8 15.9 64.4 16.5 -0.6 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 12.7 30.0 60.7 6.4 23.6 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through March 18, 2024. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: March 21, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. ET. February 2024 Note: Survey responses were collected from February 5 to February 12. Manufacturing activity in the region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for current general activity and shipments rose and turned positive. The indicator for new orders also rose but remained negative. The employment index suggests declines in employment overall. Both price indexes indicate overall increases in prices but remain below their long-run averages. The survey's broad indicators for future activity rose, suggesting more widespread expectations for overall growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Are Mixed The diffusion index for current general activity rose 16 points to 5.2 in February, its first positive reading since August. This is only the index's fourth positive reading since May 2022. More than 27 percent of the firms reported increases in general activity this month (up from 16 percent last month), while 22 percent reported decreases (down from 26 percent); 45 percent reported no change (down from 52 percent last month). The index for new orders rose 13 points but remained negative at -5.2. The current shipments index turned positive, rising from -6.2 in January to 10.7 in February. On balance, the firms reported a decline in employment. The employment index fell 9 points to -10.3 in February, its lowest reading since May 2020. Most firms (78 percent) reported no change in employment levels this month, while the share of firms reporting decreases (15 percent) exceeded the share reporting decreases (4 percent). The average workweek rose from -0.9 to 1.4 this month. Price Indexes Remain Below Long-Run Averages On balance, the firms continued to report overall increases in prices. However, most firms reported no change in prices, and both price indexes remained below their long-run averages. The prices paid index increased 5 points to 16.6 in February. Almost 21 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices, while 4 percent reported decreases; 70 percent of the firms reported no change. The current prices received index was little changed at 6.2. Over 11 percent of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods, 5 percent reported decreases, and 81 percent reported no change. Firms Experience Lower Increases in Own Prices In this month's special questions, the firms were asked to forecast the changes in prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters (see Special Questions). Regarding their own prices over the next year, the firms' median forecast was for an expected increase of 3.0 percent, unchanged from when this question was last asked in November. The firms reported a median increase of 3.0 percent in their own prices over the past year, down from 5.0 percent last quarter. The firms' median forecast for the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year was 3.0 percent, down from 4.0 percent in November. Regarding the long run, the firms' median forecast for the 10-year average inflation rate was unchanged at 3.0 percent. Most Future Indicators Strengthen The diffusion index for future general activity rose from -4.0 in January to 7.2 in February. The share of firms expecting increases in activity over the next six months (27 percent) exceeded the share expecting decreases (20 percent); 48 percent expect no change. The future new orders index rose 15 points to 24.2, while the future shipments index jumped 21 points to 26.7. The firms expect overall increases in employment over the next six months, and the future employment index rose 4 points to 4.9. The future capital expenditures index rose 5 points to 12.7, its highest reading since December 2022. Summary Responses to the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest an overall increase in regional manufacturing activity this month. The indicators for current activity and shipments turned positive, while the new orders index rose but remained negative. On balance, the firms indicated a decline in employment, and the current price indexes continue to suggest overall increases in prices. The survey's broad indicators for future activity strengthened, suggesting more widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. Special Questions (February 2024) Please list the annual percent change with respect to the following: Current Previous (Nov. 2023) For your firm: Forecast for next year (2024Q1-2025Q1) 1. Prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold). 3.0 3.0 2. Compensation your firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits). 4.0 4.0 Last year's price change (2023Q1-2024Q1) 3. Prices your firm did receive (for its own goods and services sold) over the last year. 3.0 5.0 For U.S. consumers: 4. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next year. 3.0 4.0 5. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next 10 years (2024-2033). 3.0 3.0 The numbers represent medians of the individual forecasts (percent changes). For question 5, the firms reported a 10-year annual-average change. Summary of Returns February 2024 February vs. January Six Months from Now vs. February Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business -10.6 27.3 45.4 22.1 5.2 -4.0 27.0 48.4 19.8 7.2 Conditions New Orders -17.9 27.7 37.0 32.8 -5.2 9.7 48.1 28.0 23.9 24.2 Shipments -6.2 38.0 31.4 27.3 10.7 5.5 42.4 41.0 15.7 26.7 Unfilled Orders -18.5 10.8 63.0 22.4 -11.7 13.7 26.6 47.0 26.3 0.3 Delivery Times -27.6 2.5 70.3 23.6 -21.1 -1.8 9.9 70.8 19.3 -9.4 Inventories -14.6 13.3 63.7 16.1 -2.8 -4.2 12.1 49.9 35.2 -23.1 Prices Paid 11.3 20.5 69.9 3.9 16.6 34.4 44.0 46.8 2.6 41.4 Prices Received 6.3 11.4 80.7 5.2 6.2 20.7 37.0 53.1 7.1 29.9 Number of Emp. -1.8 4.4 78.2 14.8 -10.3 1.1 18.3 64.5 13.4 4.9 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. -0.9 15.9 65.7 14.5 1.4 8.1 20.1 67.5 10.4 9.8 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- 7.5 19.9 69.8 7.2 12.7 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through February 12, 2024. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: February 15, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. ET. January 2024 Note: Survey responses were collected from January 8 to January 15. Manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall, according to the firms responding to the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments rose but remained negative. The employment index was little changed and continues to suggest mostly steady levels of employment overall. The price indexes indicate overall increases in prices, but both indexes are below their long-run averages. The survey's broad indicators for future activity declined, suggesting less widespread expectations for overall growth over the next six months. Current Indicators Remain Weak The diffusion index for current general activity ticked up from a revised reading of -12.8 in December to -10.6 in January.* This is the index's 18th negative reading in the past 20 months. More than 26 percent of the firms reported decreases, exceeding the 16 percent reporting increases; 52 percent of the firms reported no change in current activity. The indexes for current new orders and current shipments both also rose in January but remained negative. The new orders index rose from -22.1 to -17.9, and the shipments index rose 5 points to -6.2. On balance, the firms reported little change to employment. The employment index edged up less than 1 point to -1.8 in January. Similar shares of the firms reported decreases (12 percent) and increases (11 percent) in employment; most firms (75 percent) reported steady employment levels. The average workweek index remained negative but rose 5 points to -0.9. Price Indexes Dip Below Long-Run Averages On balance, the firms reported overall increases in prices. However, most firms reported no change in prices, and both price indexes dropped below their long-run averages. The prices paid index fell 13 points to 11.3 in January. More than 16 percent of the firms reported increases in input prices (down from 32 percent last month), while 5 percent reported decreases (down from 8 percent); 79 percent reported no change (up from 60 percent last month). The current prices received index declined 6 points to 6.3. Almost 8 percent of the firms reported increases in the prices of their own goods, 2 percent reported decreases, and 87 percent reported no change. Firms Expect Smaller Cost Increases for 2024 In this month's special questions, the firms were asked about changes in their various input and labor costs over the past year and their expectations for changes in costs for the coming year (see Special Questions). For all categories, the average percent change in costs expected for 2024 was smaller than the average percent change in costs reported for 2023. The respondents were also asked to rank the importance of various factors in setting prices. Demand for their own goods/services was the most important factor, followed by maintaining steady profit margins, wage and labor costs, and competitors' prices. Key Future Indicators Decline The diffusion index for future general activity fell from a revised reading of 12.6 in December to -4.0 in January, its lowest reading since May. Nearly 26 percent of the firms expect a decrease in activity over the next six months, exceeding the 22 percent that expect an increase; 43 percent expect no change. The future new orders index declined 12 points to 9.7, and the future shipments index fell 15 points to 5.5. On balance, the firms expect mostly steady employment over the next six months, and the future employment index was essentially unchanged at 1.1. The future prices paid index increased 13 points to 34.4, while the future prices received index dropped 8 points to 20.7. Both future price indexes were below their long-run averages. The index for future capital expenditures rose 15 points to 7.5, its first positive reading since September. Summary Responses to the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest overall declines in the region's manufacturing sector. The indicators for current activity, new orders, and shipments all remained negative. On balance, the firms continued to indicate overall increases in prices and mostly steady employment. The survey's broad indicators for future activity weakened, suggesting less widespread expectations for growth over the next six months. *The survey's annual data revisions, which incorporate updated seasonal factors, were released on January 11, 2024. The full history of revised data is available at https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/mbos-historical-data. Special Questions (January 2024) 1. What were the percentage changes in costs for the following categories for 2023, and what do you expect they will be for 2024? 2023 2024 (Actual) (Expected) Average Median Average Median (%) (%) (%) (%) Energy 3.1 2-3 1.9 1-2 Other Raw Materials 2.6 3-4 2.2 2-3 Intermediate Goods 3.2 3-4 2.4 3-4 Wages 4.8 4-5 3.0 3-4 Health Benefits 5.4 3-5 4.6 3-4 Nonhealth Benefits 2.6 2-3 2.2 1-2 Wages + Health Benefits + Nonhealth Benefits 5.6 4-5 4.4 3-4 Note: Respondents selected ranges of percentage changes. The average percent change is calculated using the midpoints of the ranges of each answer option. 2. Currently, when you think about setting the prices of your goods/services, how important to you are the following factors in making those decisions? Weighted Average* (%) Your competitors' prices 73 The strength of demand for your most important good(s) or service(s) 81 Your wages and labor costs (including benefits) 76 Your nonlabor costs, such as energy prices, materials prices, transportation costs, rent, etc. 68 Maintaining steady profit margins (for price over costs) 78 Interest rates, borrowing rates, and the cost of capital 47 Problems with your supply chains, such as bottlnecks and product shortages 47 The overall rate of inflation in the U.S. economy, as measured by the Consumer Price Index 51 Other 59 *Respondents reported importance on a scale of 1 (least important) to 5 (most important). The weighted average gives 1 a weight of 0; 2 a weight of 0.25; 3 a weight of 0.5; 4 a weight of 0.75; and 5 a weight of 1. Summary of Returns January 2024 January vs. December Six Months from Now vs. January Prev. Prev. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Diff. Inc. No ch. Dec. Diff. Index Index Index Index General Business -12.8 15.5 52.3 26.1 -10.6 12.6 21.9 43.4 25.9 -4.0 Conditions New Orders -22.1 17.1 42.8 35.0 -17.9 21.6 38.2 24.6 28.5 9.7 Shipments -11.2 20.4 51.5 26.6 -6.2 20.8 32.3 31.0 26.8 5.5 Unfilled Orders -8.9 19.1 39.0 37.6 -18.5 4.8 30.5 44.6 16.8 13.7 Delivery Times -18.1 0.0 72.4 27.6 -27.6 -11.1 10.2 71.1 12.0 -1.8 Inventories -3.9 9.3 62.3 23.9 -14.6 4.0 18.8 47.9 23.0 -4.2 Prices Paid 24.3 16.2 78.9 4.9 11.3 21.8 38.5 49.7 4.1 34.4 Prices Received 12.2 7.8 87.1 1.5 6.3 29.1 25.6 62.7 4.9 20.7 Number of Emp. -2.5 10.6 75.0 12.4 -1.8 1.0 18.4 55.4 17.3 1.1 Avg. Emp. Wrkwk. -5.9 15.4 67.4 16.3 -0.9 -0.8 22.6 56.2 14.5 8.1 Capital Ex. -- -- -- -- -- -7.5 18.4 61.5 11.0 7.5 Notes: (1) Diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. (2) All data are seasonally adjusted. (3) Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding, omission by respondents, or both. (4) Survey results reflect data received through January 15, 2024. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Released: January 18, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. ET.