Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability
Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay (FMP) Employer-to-Employer (E2E) Transition Probability tracks the rate at which U.S. workers transition from one employer to another in a given month. Expressed as the share (percentage) of movers among all employed workers in the previous month, E2E Transition Probability provides a timely gauge of the pace of worker reallocation in the U.S. labor market.
Data Downloads
October 2024 E2E Transition Probability
This Excel file contains the monthly transition probabilities between October 1995 and the most recent month. Both seasonally adjusted and nonseasonally adjusted series are included.
Macroeconomics
WP 21-22 – We revisit the measurement of Employer-to-Employer (EE) transitions in the monthly Current Population Survey.
Macroeconomics
Research in Focus – Shigeru Fujita of the Philadelphia Fed and his coauthors improve upon a measure of direct employer-to-employer transitions by accounting for missing survey data responses.
About the Research
The FMP E2E Transition Probability provides a timely gauge of the pace of worker reallocation in the U.S. labor market.
A faster pace of employer-to-employer transition tends to imply higher wage and productivity growth, as workers typically leave one job for another to pursue better opportunities.
The series is produced from the public-use micro data of the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS), also known as the household survey within the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation Summary. Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay developed a model that reliably imputes missing answers in the CPS to provide a better picture of employer-to-employer transitions from a household perspective.
The FMP E2E Transition Probability complements and fills in gaps in existing data and provides an important yardstick to assess the health and dynamism of the U.S. labor market. Read more about the research.
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Suggested Citation:
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Fujita, Moscarini, and Postel-Vinay Employer-to-Employer Transition Probability.
Accessed Dec 05, 2024,
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/macroeconomic-data/employer-to-employer-transition-probability.
