The Real-Time Data Research Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and NBER are cosponsoring the Annual Conference on Real-Time Data Analysis, Methods, and Applications in macroeconomics, which will be held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Friday, October 16, and Saturday, October 17, 2015. As in the previous years, the focus of the workshop is, broadly speaking, on empirical macroeconomics, with special attention (but not exclusively) to research based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. This includes methodological contributions, advances in DSGE modeling such as the incorporation of learning mechanisms or asset pricing features, and specific applications.

Conference Organizers

  • Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania)
  • Giorgio Primiceri (Northwestern University)
  • Frank Schorfheide (University of Pennsylvania)
  • Keith Sill (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)


Friday, October 16

Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime Switching Approach

  • Gianluca Benigno (London School of Economics), Andrew Foerster (FRB Kansas City), Chris Otrok (University of Missouri), Alessandro Rebucci (Johns Hopkins University), and Eric Young (University of Virginia)
  • Discussant: Dario Caldara (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

The Macroeconomic Risks of Undesirably Low Inflation

  • Jonas Arias (Board of Governors), Chris Erceg (Board of Governors), and Mathias Trabandt (Board of Governors)
  • Discussant: Cosmin Ilut (Duke University)

In Search of a Nominal Anchor: What Drives Inflation Expectations?

  • Carlos Carvalho (Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro), Stefano Eusepi (FRB New York), Emanuel Moench (Deutsche Bundesbank), and Bruce Preston (Melbourne University)
  • Discussant: James Nason (North Carolina State University)

The Effectiveness of “Forward Guidance” During the Great Recession

  • Tao Wu (International Monetary Fund)
  • Discussant: David Lopez-Salido (Board of Governors)

The Forward Guidance Puzzle

  • Marco Del Negro (FRB New York), Marc Giannoni (FRB New York), and Christina Patterson (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
  • Discussant: Luca Guerrieri (Board of Governors)

Synchronization Bias in a Simple Macroeconomic Model

  • Assaf Patir (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
  • Discussant: Zhen Huo (Yale University)

Saturday, October 17

A Composite Likelihood Framework for Analyzing Singular DSGE Models

  • Zhongjun Qu (Boston University)
  • Discussant: Timothy Christensen (New York University)

Impulse Response Matching Estimators for DSGE Models

  • Pablo Guerron-Quintana (FRB Philadelphia), Atsushi Inoue (Vanderbilt University), and Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan)
  • Discussant: Jonathan Wright (Johns Hopkins University)

Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model: Does Nonlinearity Matter?

  • Yasuo Hirose (Keio University), Takeki Sunakawa (University of Tokyo)
  • Discussant: Anna Kormilitsina (Southern Methodist University)