Launched in 2015, PIES gathers quarterly insights from firms across Delaware, southern New Jersey, and eastern and central Pennsylvania. Rather than focusing on households or expert forecasters, PIES asks CEOs and executives directly involved in setting prices to estimate how much they expect their own selling prices and employee compensation (wages and benefits) to change over the next year, as well as their forecasts for inflation nationwide for both the coming year and the next decade.1 Since mid-2019, the survey has also asked firms to report the actual change in their own prices over the past year. Their answers provide a useful basis for comparing forecasts with official inflation measures such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Policymakers and economists need to consider the perspective of these price-setting decision-makers because businesses play a central role in the inflation cycle. When businesses expect higher inflation, they may respond by raising prices, adjusting wages, and revising investment and hiring decisions.
The PIES data show that firms’ reported price changes closely follow the CPI. The data also show that firms’ forecasts have generally mirrored broader inflation trends. And even if their expectations were understated during periods of sudden economic upheaval, PIES presented a reliable signal for identifying inflection points in inflation. Notably, PIES enables insights into both near-term pressures and longer-term expectations. These insights help the Federal Reserve gauge whether businesses foresee inflation persisting or returning to stability.
Comparisons with surveys of households and professional forecasters reveal that business expectations, as captured by PIES, are economically informed and responsive to real macroeconomic conditions. PIES enriches our understanding of how businesses anticipate and adjust to economic conditions, reinforcing the importance of firm-based surveys in informing monetary policy and forecasting regional and national economic conditions.
Note: The chart reflects PIES data collected through 2025 Q4 and released on December 15, 2025. PIES data are the 10 percent trimmed mean of responses provided by firms. Data are plotted four quarters ahead to reflect the period for which they are forecast. Shaded areas indicate NBER recessions.
Learn More: Price and Inflation Expectations Survey (PIES)
Email: Phil.Regional.Economic.Analysis@phil.frb.org
- We release the results of this survey each quarter, compiled as trimmed means and medians to ensure that outlier responses do not distort the overall picture. Starting in late 2025, results will be released as a separate quarterly report. Prior to that, results were released as part of the individual Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey reports.
This article appeared in the Fourth Quarter 2025 issue of Economic Insights. Download and read the full issue.