Price and Inflation Expectations Survey (PIES)
2025 Q4 Report
December 15, 2025
Note: Survey responses were collected from November 10 to November 20.
Firms’ Expectations of Price Growth Fell Relative to Last Quarter
Third District firms reported that expected increases both for prices they will receive for their own goods and services and for U.S. inflation over the next four quarters moved down in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with the third quarter. Their expectations for compensation held steady. Firms reported a similar increase in their own prices over the past year compared with last quarter.
Firms Expect Smaller Rise in Own Prices and Steady Growth in Compensation Costs Relative to Last Quarter
For the fourth quarter of 2025 through the fourth quarter of 2026, the firms’ mean forecast for their own prices was for an increase of 2.6 percent, down from 3.3 percent last quarter. Firms expected compensation costs per employee to rise 3.3 percent over the same time period, unchanged from last quarter. The mean forecast for U.S. inflation was 3.6 percent, down from 4.7 percent last quarter.
Firms Expect Smaller Price Increases Compared with Their Current Price Growth
Looking back over the past year (the fourth quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2025), firms reported that the prices they received for their own goods and services rose 3.0 percent, little changed from the 2.9 percent they reported last quarter and higher than the 2.6 percent growth they expect over the next four quarters.
Firms Expect Lower U.S. Inflation Relative to Last Quarter’s Expectation
Firms’ median expectation for U.S. inflation declined to 3.0 percent from 3.3 percent, its second consecutive decrease and lowest reading in a year. The mean expectation also moved down, to 3.6 percent from 4.7 percent last quarter.
Long-Term Median Inflation Expectations Tick Up
For the longer run, firms’ median expectation of the average annual price increase that U.S. consumers will experience over the next 10 years moved up to 4.0 percent, following nine consecutive quarters at 3.0 percent. The mean expectation dropped to 6.1 percent from 9.3 percent, after rising in five consecutive quarters.
Price and Inflation Expectations Survey
|
|
Firm Type | Current 2025 Q4 (%) | Previous 2025 Q3 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Reported Change in Own Firm Prices Prices the respondent's firm received (for its own goods and services sold) over the past four quarters |
All | 3.0 | 2.9 | Manufacturing | 2.9 | 3.7 |
| Nonmanufacturing | 3.0 | 2.3 | |
|
Expected Change in Own Firm Prices Prices the respondent's firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold) over the next four quarters |
All | 2.6 | 3.3 |
| Manufacturing | 2.9 | 3.8 | |
| Nonmanufacturing | 2.4 | 3.0 | |
|
Expected Change in Own Compensation Compensation the respondent's firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits) over the next four quarters |
All | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Manufacturing | 3.2 | 3.3 | |
| Nonmanufacturing | 3.3 | 3.2 | |
|
Expected U.S. Inflation Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next four quarters |
All (median) | 3.0 | 3.3 |
| All | 3.6 | 4.7 | |
| Manufacturing | 3.2 | 4.5 | |
| Nonmanufacturing | 4.1 | 4.8 | |
|
Expected Long-Run U.S. Inflation Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next four quarters |
All (median) | 4.0 | 3.0 |
| All | 6.0 | 9.3 | |
| Manufacturing | 5.4 | 7.8 | |
| Nonmanufacturing | 6.6 | 10.3 | |
| Notes: Results reflect data received through November 20, 2025. The numbers in the table represent the trimmed means of individual firm forecasts (percent changes) unless noted otherwise. For Long-Run U.S. Inflation forecasts, firms provided a 10-year annual-average change. The previous quarter’s results reflect forecasts made in 2025 Q3 for 2026 Q3. | |||
To see how reported and expected firm prices compare with U.S. CPI over time, see the PIES data explorer.
For more information on how PIES data compare with U.S. CPI as well as with other inflation forecasts, see Introducing PIES.