Do recent improvements in consumer delinquency trends reflect strengthening household financial health, or are delinquency trends driven by other factors such as changes in the composition of borrowers? Using nationally representative consumer credit panel data and fixed-effects regression methods, our analysis points to a continued rise in the likelihood of delinquency, consistent with further deterioration in household financial health. This deterioration appears to be most pronounced for low- to moderate-income consumers, even as their debt burdens have declined significantly.

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