A previous version of this working paper was originally published in March 2024.

We estimate the causal effect of IDR payment burdens on loan repayment and attainment for several cohorts of first-time IDR applicants using a regression discontinuity design. Borrowers who are not required to make payments see short-run reductions in delinquency and default risk, primarily due to lower costs of inattention, but these effects fade over the longer run as some borrowers become disconnected from the student loan repayment system.

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