The author investigates the comovement of regional employment series using a common features framework. Little evidence is found to suggest that regions move synchronously; rather, it takes about three quarters before regions respond in a similar fashion to a common shock. The author identifies leading and lagging regions. None of the regional employment series appears to share a common, synchronous cycle with aggregate U.S. employment.View the Full Working Paper
Regional Employment Dynamics
WP 97-28 – There is a widespread belief that different geographic regions of the U.S. respond differently to economic shocks, perhaps because of factors such as differences in the composition of regional output, adjustment costs, or other frictions.