WP 18-14/R – I study Los Angeles Metro Rail’s effects using panel data on bilateral commuting flows, a quantitative spatial model, and historically motivated quasi-experimental research designs.
Previous versions of this working paper were originally published in March 2018 and March 2019.
The model separates transit’s commuting effects from local productivity or amenity effects, and spatial shift-share instruments identify inelastic labor and housing supply. Metro Rail connections increase commuting by 16% but do not have large effects on local productivity or amenities. Metro Rail generates $94 million in annual benefits by 2000, or 12%–25% of annualized costs. Accounting for reduced congestion and slow transit adoption adds, at most, $200 million in annual benefits.
