The authors use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables to the state variables of the DSGE model. Predictions for the non-core variables are obtained by applying their measurement equations to DSGE model- generated forecasts of the state variables. Using a medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model, the authors apply their approach to generate and evaluate recursive forecasts for PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and the unemployment rate along with predictions for the seven variables that have been used to estimate the DSGE model.
DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Non-Modelled Variables
WP 08-17 – This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables).