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Note: A Change to the Annual Retrending Procedure

Effective with the release of the April 2024 state coincident indexes, the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia implemented a change to its annual retrending process. This change is outlined in the Changes to Methodology document below. For more information, contact Tosmai Puenpatom.

State Coincident Indexes

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia produces a monthly coincident index for each of the 50 states. The indexes are typically released a few days after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the employment data for the states. (The BLS releases its January estimates along with the annual benchmark revisions around mid-March. Our January release follows about two weeks later after we re-estimate all 50 state models.) The Bank issues a release each month describing recent trends in the state indexes, with special coverage of the three states in the Third District: Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and the sum of wages and salaries with proprietors’ income (two components of personal income) deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

A dynamic single-factor model is used to create the state indexes. James Stock and Mark Watson developed the basic model for constructing a coincident index for the U.S. Theodore Crone and Alan Clayton-Matthews adapted the basic model for the states. The method involves a system of five major equations: one equation for each input variable and one equation for an underlying (latent) factor that is reflected in each of the indicator (input) variables. The underlying factor represents the state coincident index.

Recent Releases

Last updated: May 22, 2024, 10:00 AM EST

Data Sources & Methodology

Nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing, and the consumer price index are obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Wages and salaries (a component of personal income), proprietors’ income (a component of personal income), and gross domestic product by state are obtained from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Changes to Methodology: Describes changes to the creation of the state coincident index. (Last update: May 22, 2024)

Errata: Shows corrections to the historical data (Last update: May 23, 2018)



Crone, Theodore M., and Alan Clayton-Matthews. “Consistent Economic Indexes for the 50 States,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 87 (2005), pp. 593-603.

Crone, Theodore M. "A New Look at Economic Indexes for the States in the Third District," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (November/December 2000).

Crone, Theodore M. "What a New Set of Indexes Tells Us About State and National Business Cycles," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (First Quarter 2006).

Flora, Paul R., and Tosmai Puenpatom. “Regional Spotlight: State Business Cycles vs. COVID,” Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Economic Insights (Second Quarter 2023), pp. 18-24.

Koopman, Siem Jan, and Andrew Harvey. “Computing Observation Weights for Signal Extraction and Filtering,” Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 27 (2003), pp. 1317-33.

Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. “New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators,” NBER Macroeconomics Annual (1989), pp. 351-94.