November 2025 Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey
Note: Survey responses were collected from November 10 to November 20.
Nonmanufacturing activity expanded this month, according to the firms responding to the November Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The firm-level general activity index rose following two consecutive declines, and the new orders and sales/revenues indexes both turned positive. The firms reported mostly steady full-time employment. Both price indexes are elevated after the prices received index moved higher this month. The respondents’ expectations for future growth at their firms remained mixed.
Current Indicators Strengthen
The diffusion index for current general activity at the firm level rose from 3.6 to 19.8 in November, after declining in the previous two months (see Chart). Over 44 percent of the firms reported increases in activity, 24 percent reported decreases, and 28 percent reported no change. The new orders and sales/revenues indexes both jumped higher, reversing sharp declines into negative territory in October. The new orders index rose from -17.4 to 6.6 this month, and the sales/revenues index increased from -2.4 to 17.1. The indicator for current regional activity remained negative but rose 6 points to -16.3.
Employment Indicators Remain Below Long-Run Averages
The full-time employment index continued its recent pattern of alternating between positive and negative readings, rising 7 points to 2.5 this month. More than 59 percent of the firms reported no change in full-time employment, while the share of firms reporting increases (21 percent) narrowly exceeded the share reporting decreases (18 percent) The part-time employment index ticked down 2 points to -0.6. The average workweek index rose 15 points to 13.6.
Firms Continue to Report Overall Price Increases
The price indicators continued to suggest increases in prices for inputs and for the firms’ own goods and services overall, and both indexes are above their long-run averages. The prices paid index ticked down 1 point to 34.7 this month. Regarding prices for the firms’ own goods and services, the prices received index rose from 12.9 to 22.0, undoing the decline from October and reaching its highest level since December.
Firms’ Price Expectations Hold Mostly Steady
In this month’s special questions, the firms were asked to forecast the changes in prices of their own products and for U.S. consumers over the next four quarters. Regarding their own prices, the firms’ median forecast was for an increase of 2.5 percent, unchanged from when the question was last asked in August. The firms’ reported own price change over the past year was also unchanged from last quarter at 2.5 percent. The firms continued to expect their employee compensation costs (wages plus benefits on a per employee basis) to rise 3.0 percent over the next four quarters. When asked about the rate of inflation for U.S. consumers over the next year, the firms’ median forecast moved down to 3.0 percent from 3.3 percent.
The firms were also asked about changes in core customer price sensitivity and anticipated cost changes. Nearly 58 percent of the firms reported that their customers were more price sensitive compared with last quarter, while 40 percent reported customers’ sensitivity was about the same. More than 59 percent of the firms anticipated changes in their industry’s costs in the near term, and 48 percent of those firms expected their competitors to raise prices in response. Regarding when these prices changes will occur, the firms’ median expectation was for competitors to change prices in the next three months.
Future Indicators Little Changed
On balance, firms’ expectations for growth over the next six months remained mixed. The diffusion index for future activity at the firm level ticked up 1 point to 1.2, with nearly equal shares of firms expecting increases and decreases (see Chart). The future regional activity index ticked down 1 point to -13.3, its lowest reading since May.
Summary
Responses to this month’s Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest activity expanded. The indicators for firm-level general activity, new orders, and sales/revenues all rose, with the latter two turning positive. The full-time employment index also turned positive. Both price indexes were above their long-run averages. The respondents’ expectations for future growth at their own firms were little changed this month.
Special Questions (November 2025)
Please list the annual percent change with respect to the following: |
||
|---|---|---|
|
|
Current |
Previous (August 2025) |
| For your firm: | ||
| Forecast for next year (2025Q4–2026Q4) | ||
| 1. Prices your firm will receive (for its own goods and services sold). | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 2. Compensation your firm will pay per employee (for wages and benefits). | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Last year's price change (2024Q4–2025Q4) | ||
| 3. Prices your firm did receive (for its own goods and services sold) over the last year. | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| For U.S. consumers: | ||
| 4. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next year. | 3.0 | 3.3 |
| 5. Prices U.S. consumers will pay for goods and services over the next 10 years (2025–2034). | 5.0 | 3.5 |
| Note: The numbers represent medians of the individual forecasts (percent changes). For question 5, firms reported a 10-year annual-average change. | ||
|
|
Percent (%) |
|---|---|
| More sensitive | 57.8 |
| About the same | 40.0 |
| Less sensitive | 0.0 |
| Don't know | 2.2 |
|
|
Percent (%) |
|---|---|
| Yes | 59.1 |
| No | 40.9 |
|
|
Percent (%) |
|---|---|
| Raise prices | 48.0 |
| Hold prices steady | 36.0 |
| Lower prices | 16.0 |
| Don't know | 0.0 |
| *Only firms that responded “yes” to question 7 responded to question 7a. |
|
|
Number of months |
|---|---|
| Median response | 3.0 |
| **Only firms that responded “raise prices” or “lower prices” to question 7a responded to question 7b. | |
Summary of Returns (November 2025)
Return to the main page for the Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey.