User Guide

The MBOS data explorer, developed by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, provides an interactive way to explore current and future diffusion indexes for various measures of firm activity. The data come from the core questions in the MBOS, a monthly survey of manufacturing firms in the Federal Reserve’s Third District. We summarize firm responses as diffusion indexes, calculated as the share of firms reporting an increase minus the share of firms reporting a decrease, and present them in the data explorer. They are also available to download.

Using the Data Explorer

You can use the charts in the data explorer to see how diffusion indexes for current and future measures change over time. Users can select a specific company measure, such as General Business Activity or New Orders, and see monthly values for that measure’s current index and future index going back to May 1968.

Using the Data

You can also download MBOS data. The downloadable files include all historical monthly MBOS data and are updated with each monthly MBOS release.¹ The data are also revised annually to incorporate updated seasonal factors.

The MBOS captures meaningful information about changes in current business activity and expectations of future activity at manufacturing firms in the Third District. The real-time survey results provide timely insights into economic activity for the month for which data are collected — ahead of the official statistical releases of national economic data. Historically, the Third District has served as a reasonable proxy for U.S. manufacturing. Third District trends and comments from District businesses offer valuable insights that help to assess the health of the economy and inform monetary policy discussions. With these data, you can track business conditions and specific company measures over time and changes in firm expectations for future activity.

Before working with the data, users should review the MBOS Definitions page, which explains what each variable means.

Other Things to Keep in Mind

We present the results of the MBOS as diffusion indexes because they aggregate qualitative survey responses from firms into quantitative economic measures. Although this facilitates tracking regional conditions over time, we still need to be careful with interpreting the diffusion index reading for a specific measure in a given period. By construction, MBOS index values below zero are typically associated with contractions (a larger share of respondents are reporting decreases relative to the share reporting increases), and values above zero are typically associated with expansions (the share reporting increases exceeds the share reporting decreases).

The diffusion index tells us little about the magnitude of change. Rather, it conveys the direction of change and the breadth of that trend among the firms surveyed. The magnitude of the diffusion index value indicates how widespread the activity: A larger magnitude indicates a bigger gap between the shares reporting one change over the other. Furthermore, the distribution of responses (percentages reporting increase, no change, or decrease) may affect our interpretation.

For example, in our September 2024 MBOS release, we stated that “the firms reported an increase in employment, on balance, after reporting an overall decline last month. The employment index rose from -5.7 to 10.7 this month, the index’s second positive reading in the last three months following mostly negative readings since March 2023. More than 89 percent of the firms reported no change in employment levels this month, the highest share reporting steady employment since December 1978.” We noted that while the employment index had turned positive for a second time after a string of negative readings, most firms reported no change at all. The latter observation matters in the following sense. In this case, the diffusion index of 10.7 was produced because 10.7 percent of the firms indicated an increase in employment and 0.0 percent of the firms indicated a decrease in employment (89.3 percent indicated no change). Alternatively, an index of 10.7 could have been produced because 50.7 percent of the firms reported an increase, 40 percent reported a decrease, and just 9.3 percent reported no change.

Users should also always consider the broader economic context when using the MBOS diffusion index data. For example, sharp movements in energy prices can affect activity for several manufacturing sectors. A negative energy price shock may curtail oil production and demand for related heavy equipment and parts — sufficiently widespread to produce a negative index in the MBOS current general activity index. However, the lower energy prices generally benefit consumers and spur offsetting economic activity in many other sectors.

Another example occurred following the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic, consumers shifted their spending significantly away from services and toward goods — sending the indexes higher for general activity, new orders, shipments, employment, and (critically) backlogs. As consumer demand for goods returned to prepandemic norms, the indexes for general activity, new orders, and backlogs turned very negative — typical of a recession. However, the backlogs were so sufficiently large that employment and shipments remained positive for another year.

Additional Resources

• How Do We Interpret Our Latest Survey Results? (June 2020 report)
• What Does the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey Say About Local Activity? (December 2008 report)
• Taking the Measure of Manufacturing (Fourth Quarter 2003, Business Review Article)
• What’s Happening in Manufacturing: “Survey Says...” (September/October 1998 Business Review Article)