Q1 2024 Insights Report

Share of Delinquent Credit Card Balances Reaches Series High

All measures of balance-based credit card delinquency rates posted their highest levels in the nearly 12-year history of the series in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the total number of credit card accounts 30, 60, and 90 days past due declined for the first time in a year, following typical seasonal trends. Figure 1 plots the share of credit card balances and accounts 60 or more days delinquent, highlighting the divergence in trends across the two measures of card delinquencies this quarter. Although the share of accounts falling behind on payments was smaller, account holders who are behind have larger balances left unpaid. Utilization and average account balances declined this quarter across all percentile cuts, in a typical seasonal reduction following holiday spending.

Total revolving balances posted a series high at $628.6 billion this quarter, bringing revolved balances as a share of total outstanding balances to its highest point since 2021, at 71.3 percent. Revolved balances as a share of total outstanding had fallen to a series low of 65 percent during the pandemic, when federal stimulus helped more borrowers pay in full.

Card Growth Slows as Underwriting Standards Tighten

Figure 2 shows origination credit scores reached their highest point in more than 10 years for the 25th and 50th percentile cuts, as banks reported increasing minimum credit score requirements. Meanwhile, the median original credit limit was higher in the first quarter compared with the previous year, even after adjusting for inflation, suggesting that banks are tightening underwriting standards but not imposing additional limits on approved new borrowers. For existing accounts, a smaller share (3.3 percent) received credit line increases in the first quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier (3.6 percent). 

As total outstanding balances remained near series highs, growth slowed in card originations over the quarter and over the past year. New card originations declined since the previous quarter by $5.6 billion (5 percent) and 3.4 million accounts (17 percent), both in line with typical first quarter declines.¹ It is common for first quarter borrowing metrics to moderate after fourth quarter spikes due to holiday spending. That said, new card originations were also down on a year-over-year basis. Card originations declined by $3.8 billion (3.6 percent) and 1.3 million accounts (7.4 percent) relative to first quarter 2023.

Large Bank Mortgage Originations Reach Lowest Point in Series History

Figure 3 shows the changes in the levels of mortgage origination dollars and new accounts, indexed to third quarter 2012 as the base quarter. While first quarter declines in mortgage originations are common, mortgage originations bottomed out to series lows (at $44.4 billion and 80,100 accounts) in the first quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, the average new loan size reached a series high (at $554,450), and all percentile-based measures of original loan sizes increased this quarter. The median new mortgage size rose 9.6 percent to $335,000, while the 75th and 90th percentiles both reached series highs at $680,000 and $1.2 million, respectively. With origination volume at its lowest point in the series, the loans that are being made are skewing larger.