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Friday, July 31, 2015

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State Leading Indexes

The Philadelphia Fed has replaced the state coincident and state leading indexes for May 2015. We recently discovered a processing error, which was part of the retrending step of the state coincident indexes. The error underestimated the underlying long-term growth trend used by both indexes for most states by 0.0 percent to 1.1 percent, except for Michigan’s growth rate, which was overestimated by 0.6 percent. In response, we fixed the error, reestimated the coincident and leading indexes for May, and provided a more detailed explanation with an analysis of the impact on each individual state. This analysis PDF as well as the revised May releases can be downloaded as follows:

Revised May State Coincident Indexes PDF Revised Data Excel spreadsheet
Revised May State Leading Indexes PDF Revised Data Excel spreadsheet

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia produces leading indexes for each of the 50 states. The indexes are calculated monthly and are usually released a week after the release of the coincident indexes. The Bank issues a release each month describing the current and future economic situation of the 50 states with special coverage of the Third District: Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware.

The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill.

A time-series model (vector autoregression) is used to construct the leading index. Current and prior values of the forecast variables are used to determine the future values of the index.

Data Sources

Delivery times from the ISM Manufacturing Survey can be obtained from the Institute for Supply Management. External Link

Housing permits can be obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau. External Link

Initial unemployment insurance claims can be obtained from the Department of Labor. External Link

Interest rates for the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill can be obtained from the Board of Governors. External Link

Reference

Crone, Theodore M. "A New Look at Economic Indexes for the States in the Third District," PDF Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (November/December 2000).

  • Last update: July 17, 2015

Latest Data

Latest Chart for State Leading Indexes

Next Release Date

The next release date is July 29, 2015, at 10:00 a.m. The complete list of release dates is also available.

Questions?

Questions or comments about the leading indexes can be sent to Tosmai Puenpatom. E-mail