The Real-Time Data Research Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia CIRANO and CIREQ are cosponsoring another conference in a series on real-time data analysis, methods, and applications in macroeconomics and finance, to be held at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Friday and Saturday, October 10-11, 2014. The conference will bring together leading researchers in real-time analysis of economic data and will cover topics such as real-time macro- and financial econometrics, forecasting, and macroeconomic policy analysis, among others.

Organized by

  • Dean Croushore, University of Richmond
  • Domenico Giannone, Université Libre de Bruxelles — ECARES
  • Keith Sill, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
  • Shaun Vahey, University of Warwick
  • Simon van Norden, HEC Montréal and CIRANO

Program - Download

Friday, October 10, 2014

Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks

  • Giovanni Ricco (London Business School), Giovanni Callegari (European Central Bank), and Jacopo Cimadomo (European Central Bank)
  • Discussant: Thorsten Drautzburg (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

Fundamental Disagreement

  • Philippe Andrade (Banque de France), Richard Crump (Federal Reserve Bank of New York), Stefano Eusepi (Federal Reserve Bank of New York), and Emanuel Moench (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
  • Discussant: Ricardo Reis (Columbia University)

Analyzing Data Revisions with a DSGE Model

  • Dean Croushore (University of Richmond and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) and Keith Sill (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
  • Discussant: Tara Sinclair (George Washington University)

Discussion by Athanasios Orphanides (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Are Professional Forecasters Bayesians?

  • Sebastiano Manzan (City University of New York)
  • Discussant: Kajal Lahiri (State University of New York, Albany)

Term Structures of Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates: The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy

  • Boragan Aruoba (University of Maryland and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)
  • Discussant: James Nason (North Carolina State University)

Indeterminancy and Learning: An Analysis of Monetary Policy in the Great Inflation

  • Thomas Lubik (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond) and Christian Matthes (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)
  • Discussant: Athanasios Orphanides (MIT)

Saturday, October 11, 2014

Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break

  • William Barnett (University of Kansas), Marcelle Chauvet University of California, Riverside), and Danilo Leiva-Leon (Bank of Canada)
  • Discussant: Tatevik Sekposyan (Texas A&M)

Combined Density Nowcasting in an Uncertain Economic Environment

  • Knut Aastveit (Norges Bank), Francesco Ravazzolo (Norges Bank and BI Norwegian Business School), and Herman van Dijk (Erasmus University Rotterdam and VU University Amsterdam)
  • Discussant: Mark Watson (Princeton University)

Forecasting with Dynamic Panel Data Models

  • Laura Liu (University of Pennsylvania), Roger Moon (University of Southern California), and Frank Schorfheide (Yonsei University)
  • Discussant: Jonathan Wright (Johns Hopkins University)

Real-Time Forecasting for Monetary Policy Analysis: The Case of the Sveriges Riksbank

  • Jens Iversen, Stefan Laseen, Henrik Lundvall, and Ulf Soderstrom (Sveriges Riksbank)
  • Discussant: Edward Herbst (Federal Reserve Board)