Figure 1 shows that, among 22 OECD countries, only one has experienced a decrease.1 For the OECD overall, the manufacturing export share of GDP rose at an annual rate of 1.4 percent per year between 1970 and 1998. Figure 1 also shows, however, that during the same period, all but three countries have experienced declines in manufacturing value-added as a share of GDP. Again, for the OECD overall, this share declined at a rate of 1.3 percent per year.
- Among the 30 OECD countries, eight could not be included in our sample because data on manufacturing trade or GDP existed for less than 10 years. Hereafter, “OECD” will refer to the 22 countries for which we have long data. For most countries, the data run from 1970 to 2001. When we use gross output instead of value added, we find the same pattern. We also examine three-digit industry level data for six of the G-7 countries. Most of the industries are in the “northwest” quadrant. The data sources include OECD and UNCTAD publications. More details are available from the authors on request.