For immediate release
Contact: Daneil Mazone, Manager, Media Relations
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia will now release Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment each quarter for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Benchmark estimates of monthly state employment, previously available only once each year, are now available for 2021 Q4 and 2022 Q1.
In March of each year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revises the Current Employment Statistics’ (CES) monthly state employment estimates. For this annual revision, the BLS incorporates more comprehensive data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). Because QCEW data are released each quarter, the Philadelphia Fed can update its early benchmark estimates on a quarterly, rather than an annual, basis.
The Philadelphia Fed’s timelier revisions provide more accurate estimates of states’ job growth, which closely predict the annual BLS benchmark revisions. They also provide insights into recent national economic trends.
Significantly large downward revisions for a majority of states often confirm a downward inflection of the nation’s job growth. Likewise, large, widespread upward revisions of state employment often accompany periods of accelerating national job growth. If such revisions persist in the same direction over two or three quarters, that may confirm that the national economy has reached a turning point.
2022 Q1 Early Benchmark Revisions
Estimates indicate that employment changes from December 2021 through March 2022 were significantly different in 17 states compared with current state CES estimates.
Overall, payroll jobs grew 4.6 percent from December 2021 through March 2022 after adjusting for QCEW data. This is more than the 4.4 percent growth indicated by both the sum of the states and by U.S. CES estimates.
Read the reports from 2022 Q1 and 2021 Q4.
Learn more on how to interpret the Philadelphia Fed’s early benchmark estimates.