In a recent paper, Owen Lamont finds that forecasters in the Business Week survey make more radical forecasts as they gain experience. In this paper, the author uses forecasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters to test the robustness of Lamont's results. The author's results contradict Lamont's. However, careful examination of a methodological difference in the two surveys suggests a more general theory of forecasting that accounts for both sets of results.View the Full Working Paper
Macroeconomic Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters
WP 97-10 – Do professional forecasters distort their reported forecasts in a way that compromises accuracy? New research in the theory of forecasting suggests such a possibility.