A previous version of this working paper was originally published in September 2015.

Our model indicates that the ACA lowers the uninsured rate from 22.6 to 5.4 percent, with a moderate welfare gain due to increased redistribution through health insurance subsidies and Medicaid expansion. Because of the weakened link between full-time employment and access to insurance, 2.1 million more part-time jobs are created at the expense of 1.6 million full-time jobs. The predicted negative effect on total hours (0.36 percent) is smaller than other estimates, partly due to the general equilibrium effect.

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