Glass jar of coins on its side, with some of the coins spilling out onto the table

Working Paper

Forecasting Coin Demand

Dean Croushore &
Tom Stark

Revised: March 2003

WP 02-15/R – Shortages of coins in 1999 and 2000 motivated us to develop models for forecasting coin demand.

A previous version of this working paper was originally published in 2002.

A variety of models were developed, tested, and used in real-time forecasting. This paper describes the models that were developed and examines the forecast errors from the models both in quasi-ex-ante forecasting exercises and in real-time use. Tests for forecast efficiency are run on each model. Real-time forecasts are examined. The authors conclude with suggestions for further refinements of the models.

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