A previous version of this working paper was originally published in 2002.
A variety of models were developed, tested, and used in real-time forecasting. This paper describes the models that were developed and examines the forecast errors from the models both in quasi-ex-ante forecasting exercises and in real-time use. Tests for forecast efficiency are run on each model. Real-time forecasts are examined. The authors conclude with suggestions for further refinements of the models.View the Full Working Paper