Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Signal Future Monetary Policy?

This explanation says that central banks signal a more contractionary monetary policy in the future by buying domestic currency today. Therefore, the expectations of future tighter monetary policy make the domestic currency appreciate, even though the current monetary effects of the intervention are typically offset by central banks. Of course, this explanation presumes that central banks, in fact, back up interventions with subsequent changes in monetary policy. In this paper, the authors empirically examine this presumption.