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Historical Data Files for the Survey of Professional Forecasters

Probability of Decline in Real GNP/GDP (RECESS)

Probability that real GNP/GDP will decline (quarter over quarter) in the quarter in which the survey was conducted (RECESS1) and the following four quarters (RECESS2 to RECESS5). Percentage points. Real GNP prior to 1992. Real GDP 1992 to present.

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