Fourth Quarter 2007 Survey of Professional Forecasters: Special Questions
In a special question in this survey, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia asked its panelists for their views on inflation targeting. Specifically, the following three questions were asked:
- Do you think the FOMC has a numerical target for long-run inflation (that is, inflation over the next 10 years)? Please answer Yes or No.
- If you answered Yes, please list (a) the measure of inflation and (b) the numerical target.
- Please list the measure of inflation, choosing one measure from the following: CPI, core CPI, PCE, core PCE
- Please list the numerical target (annualized percentage points).
- If your numerical target in 2(b) differs from your forecast for inflation over the next 10 years, please explain why.
The Excel file below provides a record of all the panelists' responses to these three questions. Each row of the file corresponds to a single participant's response.
- The first two columns state the year and quarter of the survey. The column labeled ID shows the ID number for the participant.
- The answer to Question 1 is recorded in the column titled Target. A value of 1 corresponds to "Yes," a 2 corresponds to "No," and a 3 corresponds to no response given.
- Answers given for Question 2(a) are recorded in the column titled Measure. A value of 1 corresponds to "CPI," a 2 corresponds to "Core CPI," a 3 corresponds to "PCE," a 4 corresponds to "Core PCE," and a 5 corresponds to no response given.
- Answers for Question 2(b) are recorded in the column titled Value. This column contains the numerical inflation target supplied by each participant or a value of "-99" if no response was given.
- Answers for Question 3 are recorded in the column Text. This column contains the participant's response to Question 3 or a value of "None" if no response was given.
View the individual responses to the special questions. (20 KB)
Return to the main page for the Survey of Professional Forecasters.