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Excel files containing real-time estimates of the NAIRU can be downloaded by clicking on the links below.
The Federal Reserve staff’s real-time estimates of the NAIRU should be interpreted with caution. First, there is no unique conceptual definition of the NAIRU, and the definition used in Federal Reserve staff estimates of the NAIRU has evolved over time. Indeed, a number of specific definitional changes should be noted:
It should also be noted that at any given point in time, the staff was most concerned about estimating the contemporaneous NAIRU and hence may have devoted somewhat less attention to revising the historical NAIRU estimates, especially for dates in the relatively distant past. Consequently, definitional changes or modifications in the estimation procedures may not have been incorporated into the retrospective NAIRU estimates until somewhat later than the point in time at which these adjustments were made to the contemporaneous NAIRU estimate. Finally, it should be noted that each vintage of NAIRU estimates was archived in an electronic database but not reported in the Greenbook, and hence these data are not necessarily free from typographical errors.
If you have any questions about the data, please contact Tom Stark at email@example.com.
Return to the main page for the Greenbook data sets.