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Economic Insights features nontechnical articles on monetary policy, banking, and national, regional, and international economics, all written for a wide audience.
Why Are Recessions So Hard to Predict? Random Shocks and Business Cycles
Economists aren't soothsayers. They can't pinpoint the start of the next recession. But as Thorsten Drautzburg explains, their models can at least help us understand why a recession is happening, and what can be done about it.
Banking Trends: Estimating Today's Commercial Real Estate Risk
Pablo D'Erasmo traces the link between exposure to commercial real estate loans and bank failure, and estimates how much more capital banks would need to withstand a plunge in prices like in the financial crisis.
Abstracts of the latest working papers produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.