For release: 10 a.m.,
Contact: Katherine Dibling, senior media representative, (215) 574-4119
Growth in the U.S. economy is predicted to be slower in the short run compared to the forecast of three months ago, according to the 37 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in the Third Quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters.
Assistant Director and Manager, Real-Time Data Research Center, Tom Stark:
“The economy looks weaker to the forecasters than it did in the last survey. We see downward revisions to the projections for growth, upward revisions to unemployment projections, and a higher risk of a downturn over the next five quarters. The forecasters peg the odds of a downturn at roughly 1 in 5, or 20 percent.”
The Survey of Professional Forecasters is a quarterly survey of economic forecasters from across the country. Participants are asked to provide their projections for a broad range of macroeconomic variables including real GDP, nonfarm payroll employment, and inflation indicators such as CPI and PCE. It is the oldest survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990. The fourth quarter 2011 Survey of Professional Forecasters will be released at 10 a.m., Monday, November 14. See the schedule of releases.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy, supervises banks and bank and savings and loan holding companies, and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank serves eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.